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Eredivisie

Referee: D Higler

Zwolle

T T S T U

3–1

Full-time

AZ Alkmaar

S U T S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Zwolle AZ Alkmaar

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

33%

50%

Points per game

1,2

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

67%

Both score Ø 58%

83%

33%

Average goals

3,3

3,5

Scored

1,2

2,5

Conceded

2,2

1,0

Goal diff per game

-1,0

+1,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Eredivisie · 18/17 matches

Win Ø 38%

28%

47%

Points per game

1,1

1,6

Over 2.5 Ø 66%

61%

71%

Both score Ø 66%

61%

71%

Average goals

3,4

3,5

Scored

1,2

1,9

Conceded

2,2

1,6

Goal diff per game

-0,9

+0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

1,73 xG 0,61

47% Possession 53%

12 Shots 12

5 Shots on target 4

2 Blocked shots 3

3 Goalkeeper saves 2

3 Corners 7

2 Offside 2

12 Free kicks against 14

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Zwolle 13. · AZ Alkmaar 6. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	18	16	1	1	+35	+16.4	49
2	Feyenoord	18	11	3	4	+21	+20.3	36
3	Ajax	18	8	7	3	+9	+4.0	31
4	Nijmegen	17	8	5	4	+14	+5.6	29
5	Groningen	17	8	4	5	+5	+10.0	28
6	AZ Alkmaar	17	8	4	5	+4	+13.6	28
7	Twente	18	6	8	4	+5	+18.3	26
8	Sparta Rotterdam	18	8	2	8	-11	-2.8	26
9	Heerenveen	17	6	5	6	+3	+12.5	23
10	Utrecht	16	6	4	6	+5	-2.9	22
11	For Sittard	18	6	4	8	-4	-8.1	22
12	Go Ahead Eagles	19	4	9	6	-3	-12.1	21
13	Zwolle	18	5	5	8	-17	-16.1	20
14	Excelsior	17	6	1	10	-15	-12.3	19
15	Telstar	18	3	6	9	-8	-8.6	15
16	NAC Breda	18	3	5	10	-10	-7.1	14
17	Volendam	18	3	5	10	-13	-16.4	14
18	Heracles	18	4	2	12	-20	-14.1	14

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	9	7	1	1	+17	+11.3	22
2	Feyenoord	9	6	1	2	+10	+11.7	19
3	Nijmegen	8	5	2	1	+11	+6.4	17
4	Ajax	9	5	2	2	+6	+7.2	17
5	For Sittard	9	5	2	2	+3	+1.9	17
6	Utrecht	8	5	1	2	+9	+2.8	16
7	Groningen	9	4	3	2	+7	+7.7	15
8	AZ Alkmaar	8	4	3	1	+4	+7.1	15
9	Twente	9	4	3	2	+2	+11.6	15
10	Go Ahead Eagles	9	3	5	1	+3	+0.6	14
11	Sparta Rotterdam	10	4	2	4	-7	-1.8	14
12	Heerenveen	9	3	4	2	+1	+8.7	13
13	Zwolle	8	4	1	3	-4	-2.2	13
14	Volendam	9	3	3	3	+2	-1.3	12
15	Excelsior	9	4	0	5	-2	-5.5	12
16	NAC Breda	9	3	2	4	-1	+2.9	11
17	Heracles	8	3	1	4	-3	-1.6	10
18	Telstar	10	1	4	5	-5	-1.0	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	9	9	0	0	+18	+5.1	27
2	Feyenoord	9	5	2	2	+11	+8.7	17
3	Ajax	9	3	5	1	+3	-3.3	14
4	AZ Alkmaar	9	4	1	4	+0	+6.6	13
5	Groningen	8	4	1	3	-2	+2.3	13
6	Nijmegen	9	3	3	3	+3	-0.8	12
7	Sparta Rotterdam	8	4	0	4	-4	-1.0	12
8	Twente	9	2	5	2	+3	+6.7	11
9	Heerenveen	8	3	1	4	+2	+3.8	10
10	Telstar	8	2	2	4	-3	-7.6	8
11	Go Ahead Eagles	10	1	4	5	-6	-12.7	7
12	Zwolle	10	1	4	5	-13	-13.9	7
13	Excelsior	8	2	1	5	-13	-6.8	7
14	Utrecht	8	1	3	4	-4	-5.8	6
15	For Sittard	9	1	2	6	-7	-9.9	5
16	Heracles	10	1	1	8	-17	-12.5	4
17	NAC Breda	9	0	3	6	-9	-10.0	3
18	Volendam	9	0	2	7	-15	-15.1	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.