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Championship

Referee: S Martin

Derby

T T S S S

2–0

Full-time

Preston

U T U S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Derby Preston

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

50%

33%

Points per game

1,5

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 33%

33%

Average goals

2,7

2,0

Scored

1,2

1,0

Conceded

1,5

1,0

Goal diff per game

-0,3

+0,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Championship · 38/38 matches

Win Ø 26%

26%

Points per game

1,0

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

42%

Both score Ø 54%

50%

58%

Average goals

2,4

2,2

Scored

1,1

1,0

Conceded

1,3

1,2

Goal diff per game

-0,3

-0,1

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

0,66 xG 0,30

36% Possession 64%

7 Shots 5

2 Shots on target 1

3 Blocked shots 2

1 Goalkeeper saves 0

4 Corners 3

3 Offside 2

11 Free kicks against 10

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Derby 22. · Preston 14. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leeds	39	23	12	4	+51	+45.7	81
2	Burnley	39	22	15	2	+42	+16.4	81
3	Sheffield United	36	24	6	6	+25	+13.3	78
4	Sunderland	36	20	11	5	+23	+15.3	71
5	West Brom	39	13	18	8	+13	+8.3	57
6	Middlesbrough	39	16	9	14	+10	+11.7	57
7	Bristol City	37	14	14	9	+8	+4.6	56
8	Coventry	37	16	7	14	+2	+17.0	55
9	Watford	39	15	8	16	-4	-5.8	53
10	Norwich	39	13	13	13	+7	+10.9	52
11	Blackburn	39	15	7	17	+1	-1.8	52
12	Sheffield Weds	39	14	10	15	-6	-2.1	52
13	Millwall	39	13	12	14	-3	+1.7	51
14	Preston	38	10	17	11	-5	-0.5	47
15	QPR	39	11	12	16	-8	-6.8	45
16	Swansea	39	12	9	18	-11	-2.6	45
17	Portsmouth	39	12	9	18	-14	-13.3	45
18	Stoke	39	10	12	17	-12	-16.4	42
19	Oxford	39	10	12	17	-17	-23.5	42
20	Hull	39	10	11	18	-9	-5.3	41
21	Cardiff	39	9	13	17	-20	-14.5	40
22	Derby	38	10	8	20	-11	-8.1	38
23	Luton	39	10	8	21	-25	-7.2	38
24	Plymouth	39	7	13	19	-37	-37.1	34

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leeds	20	15	4	1	+38	+28.5	49
2	Burnley	20	11	9	0	+23	+10.6	42
3	Sunderland	19	12	6	1	+17	+13.9	42
4	Sheffield United	18	13	2	3	+14	+13.2	41
5	Bristol City	18	10	6	2	+14	+8.5	36
6	Watford	20	11	3	6	+5	+0.5	36
7	West Brom	19	9	8	2	+13	+9.1	35
8	Portsmouth	20	10	5	5	+11	+3.1	35
9	Middlesbrough	20	10	5	5	+8	+8.1	35
10	Norwich	20	9	7	4	+18	+12.5	34
11	Coventry	18	10	3	5	+9	+10.1	33
12	Blackburn	19	10	3	6	+9	+5.5	33
13	Oxford	19	9	5	5	+2	-5.2	32
14	Preston	19	7	10	2	+6	+7.0	31
15	Stoke	20	7	8	5	+4	-3.5	29
16	Millwall	19	8	4	7	+3	+6.3	28
17	Derby	19	8	3	8	+6	+1.7	27
18	QPR	19	7	6	6	+3	+3.4	27
19	Luton	19	7	6	6	+1	+7.6	27
20	Swansea	19	7	5	7	+4	+7.0	26
21	Plymouth	19	6	7	6	-2	-6.7	25
22	Cardiff	20	7	4	9	-2	-0.9	25
23	Sheffield Weds	19	5	7	7	-1	+3.8	22
24	Hull	20	4	7	9	-4	+4.4	19

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Burnley	19	11	6	2	+19	+5.9	39
2	Sheffield United	18	11	4	3	+11	+0.1	37
3	Leeds	19	8	8	3	+13	+17.3	32
4	Sheffield Weds	20	9	3	8	-5	-5.9	30
5	Sunderland	17	8	5	4	+6	+1.4	29
6	Millwall	20	5	8	7	-6	-4.6	23
7	Middlesbrough	19	6	4	9	+2	+3.6	22
8	West Brom	20	4	10	6	+0	-0.8	22
9	Hull	19	6	4	9	-5	-9.7	22
10	Coventry	19	6	4	9	-7	+6.9	22
11	Bristol City	19	4	8	7	-6	-4.0	20
12	Blackburn	20	5	4	11	-8	-7.3	19
13	Swansea	20	5	4	11	-15	-9.7	19
14	QPR	20	4	6	10	-11	-10.1	18
15	Norwich	19	4	6	9	-11	-1.5	18
16	Watford	19	4	5	10	-9	-6.3	17
17	Preston	19	3	7	9	-11	-7.5	16
18	Cardiff	19	2	9	8	-18	-13.6	15
19	Stoke	19	3	4	12	-16	-13.0	13
20	Derby	19	2	5	12	-17	-9.8	11
21	Luton	20	3	2	15	-26	-14.8	11
22	Oxford	20	1	7	12	-19	-18.3	10
23	Portsmouth	19	2	4	13	-25	-16.4	10
24	Plymouth	20	1	6	13	-35	-30.4	9

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.