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Serie A

Referee: F Fourneau

Napoli

S S U U U

1–0

Full-time

Sassuolo

T U U T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Napoli Sassuolo

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

33%

Points per game

1,5

0,5

Over 2.5 Ø 33%

33%

Both score Ø 42%

33%

50%

Average goals

2,2

2,3

Scored

1,3

0,7

Conceded

0,8

1,7

Goal diff per game

+0,5

-1,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Serie A · 20/20 matches

Win Ø 45%

60%

30%

Points per game

2,0

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 48%

45%

50%

Both score Ø 48%

45%

50%

Average goals

2,4

2,5

Scored

1,5

1,2

Conceded

0,9

1,4

Goal diff per game

+0,7

-0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

0,58 xG 0,91

53% Possession 47%

11 Shots 21

4 Shots on target 4

1 Blocked shots 10

4 Goalkeeper saves 3

5 Corners 4

0 Offside 2

10 Free kicks against 11

0 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Napoli 3. · Sassuolo 11. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	21	16	1	4	+27	+22.1	49
2	Milan	20	12	7	1	+17	+8.9	43
3	Napoli	20	12	4	4	+13	+9.1	40
4	Juventus	20	11	6	3	+16	+17.5	39
5	Roma	20	13	0	7	+12	+2.5	39
6	Como	20	9	7	4	+12	+7.3	34
7	Atalanta	21	8	8	5	+6	+9.7	32
8	Bologna	20	8	6	6	+7	+0.2	30
9	Lazio	20	7	7	6	+5	-4.3	28
10	Udinese	21	7	5	9	-11	-5.6	26
11	Sassuolo	20	6	5	9	-4	-9.9	23
12	Torino	20	6	5	9	-11	-4.6	23
13	Cremonese	20	5	7	8	-8	-12.7	22
14	Parma	20	5	7	8	-8	-7.5	22
15	Genoa	20	4	7	9	-7	-0.6	19
16	Cagliari	20	4	7	9	-9	-11.0	19
17	Lecce	20	4	5	11	-15	-11.6	17
18	Fiorentina	20	2	8	10	-10	+1.7	14
19	Pisa	21	1	11	9	-15	-7.0	14
20	Verona	20	2	7	11	-17	-4.0	13

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	11	8	1	2	+19	+14.0	25
2	Juventus	10	6	4	0	+12	+12.3	22
3	Napoli	9	6	3	0	+8	+2.2	21
4	Roma	10	7	0	3	+8	+4.4	21
5	Milan	10	6	3	1	+7	+7.1	21
6	Como	10	5	4	1	+7	+5.3	19
7	Atalanta	11	5	4	2	+5	+9.6	19
8	Lazio	10	4	4	2	+6	+1.8	16
9	Bologna	9	4	2	3	+3	+4.1	14
10	Udinese	11	3	4	4	-5	+0.5	13
11	Sassuolo	10	3	2	5	-3	-5.8	11
12	Torino	10	3	2	5	-7	-4.4	11
13	Cremonese	9	2	4	3	-2	-1.6	10
14	Genoa	11	2	4	5	-4	+0.6	10
15	Fiorentina	10	2	3	5	-1	+4.5	9
16	Cagliari	9	2	3	4	-3	-4.6	9
17	Parma	10	2	3	5	-6	-5.2	9
18	Lecce	11	2	3	6	-8	-2.5	9
19	Pisa	11	1	4	6	-9	-2.4	7
20	Verona	10	1	3	6	-6	-0.4	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	10	8	0	2	+8	+8.1	24
2	Milan	10	6	4	0	+10	+1.8	22
3	Napoli	11	6	1	4	+5	+6.8	19
4	Roma	10	6	0	4	+4	-2.0	18
5	Juventus	10	5	2	3	+4	+5.2	17
6	Bologna	11	4	4	3	+4	-3.8	16
7	Como	10	4	3	3	+5	+1.9	15
8	Atalanta	10	3	4	3	+1	+0.1	13
9	Parma	10	3	4	3	-2	-2.3	13
10	Udinese	10	4	1	5	-6	-6.2	13
11	Sassuolo	10	3	3	4	-1	-4.2	12
12	Lazio	10	3	3	4	-1	-6.2	12
13	Torino	10	3	3	4	-4	-0.2	12
14	Cremonese	11	3	3	5	-6	-11.1	12
15	Cagliari	11	2	4	5	-6	-6.5	10
16	Genoa	9	2	3	4	-3	-1.1	9
17	Lecce	9	2	2	5	-7	-9.1	8
18	Pisa	10	0	7	3	-6	-4.6	7
19	Verona	10	1	4	5	-11	-3.6	7
20	Fiorentina	10	0	5	5	-9	-2.8	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.