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Championship

Referee: Gavin Ward

Leicester

S U S T T

2–1

Full-time

Derby

T U S U U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Leicester Derby

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

33%

17%

Points per game

1,2

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

100%

50%

Both score Ø 92%

100%

83%

Average goals

4,2

2,7

Scored

2,0

1,3

Conceded

2,2

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,2

+0,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Championship · 23/23 matches

Win Ø 35%

35%

Points per game

1,3

1,4

Over 2.5 Ø 55%

61%

48%

Both score Ø 74%

74%

Average goals

2,8

2,7

Scored

1,4

Conceded

1,4

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–1

0,68 xG 0,69

45% Possession 55%

8 Shots 9

2 Shots on target 2

2 Blocked shots 2

1 Goalkeeper saves 1

3 Corners 4

0 Offside 1

10 Free kicks against 12

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Leicester 13. · Derby 11. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Coventry	24	15	6	3	+29	+19.8	51
2	Ipswich	24	11	8	5	+17	+19.2	41
3	Middlesbrough	21	11	6	4	+6	+5.5	39
4	Preston	23	9	10	4	+7	-4.5	37
5	Bristol City	23	10	6	7	+7	-0.2	36
6	Millwall	22	10	6	6	-4	+0.8	36
7	Watford	23	9	8	6	+4	+6.8	35
8	Hull	21	10	5	6	+3	-10.3	35
9	QPR	23	10	5	8	-2	+3.0	35
10	Stoke	23	10	4	9	+7	-4.2	34
11	Derby	23	8	8	7	+1	-6.2	32
12	Wrexham	23	7	10	6	+2	-6.7	31
13	Leicester	23	8	7	8	-1	-6.2	31
14	Southampton	22	8	6	8	+4	+10.3	30
15	Birmingham	23	8	6	9	+1	+11.0	30
16	West Brom	23	8	4	11	-5	+2.8	28
17	Charlton	22	7	6	9	-6	-9.6	27
18	Blackburn	22	7	5	10	-4	+7.5	26
19	Sheffield United	23	8	2	13	-5	+8.2	26
20	Swansea	23	7	5	11	-7	-7.2	26
21	Oxford	23	5	7	11	-8	-6.4	22
22	Portsmouth	22	5	7	10	-10	-6.4	22
23	Norwich	23	5	6	12	-9	-9.0	21
24	Sheffield Weds	22	1	7	14	-27	-18.1	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Coventry	12	9	2	1	+18	+9.5	29
2	Ipswich	12	7	4	1	+12	+15.6	25
3	Watford	12	7	4	1	+8	+6.8	25
4	Middlesbrough	11	7	3	1	+6	+0.5	24
5	Hull	11	7	2	2	+4	-2.9	23
6	Birmingham	11	6	4	1	+13	+14.2	22
7	Stoke	11	6	2	3	+9	+2.2	20
8	QPR	11	6	2	3	+5	+7.3	20
9	Wrexham	12	5	5	2	+4	+3.2	20
10	Preston	12	5	5	2	+4	-1.1	20
11	Millwall	11	6	2	3	+0	+3.7	20
12	West Brom	11	5	4	2	+4	+6.5	19
13	Southampton	10	5	3	2	+6	+7.5	18
14	Bristol City	12	5	3	4	+5	-0.2	18
15	Swansea	12	5	3	4	-1	-1.6	18
16	Charlton	10	5	2	3	+1	-2.1	17
17	Leicester	11	4	4	3	+2	+1.7	16
18	Portsmouth	12	4	3	5	-1	+1.8	15
19	Sheffield United	11	4	2	5	+3	+9.6	14
20	Derby	12	3	5	4	-3	-0.0	14
21	Oxford	11	3	4	4	-3	+0.5	13
22	Norwich	11	3	1	7	-4	-0.3	10
23	Blackburn	11	2	3	6	-5	+5.4	9
24	Sheffield Weds	12	0	3	9	-22	-8.8	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Coventry	12	6	4	2	+11	+10.3	22
2	Derby	11	5	3	3	+4	-6.2	18
3	Bristol City	11	5	3	3	+2	+0.0	18
4	Preston	11	4	5	2	+3	-3.4	17
5	Blackburn	11	5	2	4	+1	+2.1	17
6	Ipswich	12	4	4	4	+5	+3.7	16
7	Millwall	11	4	4	3	-4	-2.9	16
8	Middlesbrough	10	4	3	3	+0	+5.0	15
9	Leicester	12	4	3	5	-3	-7.9	15
10	QPR	12	4	3	5	-7	-4.3	15
11	Stoke	12	4	2	6	-2	-6.4	14
12	Hull	10	3	3	4	-1	-7.4	12
13	Southampton	12	3	3	6	-2	+2.8	12
14	Sheffield United	12	4	0	8	-8	-1.4	12
15	Wrexham	11	2	5	4	-2	-9.9	11
16	Norwich	12	2	5	5	-5	-8.7	11
17	Watford	11	2	4	5	-4	+0.0	10
18	Charlton	12	2	4	6	-7	-7.5	10
19	Oxford	12	2	3	7	-5	-7.0	9
20	West Brom	12	3	0	9	-9	-3.7	9
21	Swansea	11	2	2	7	-6	-5.6	8
22	Birmingham	12	2	2	8	-12	-3.2	8
23	Sheffield Weds	10	1	4	5	-5	-9.3	7
24	Portsmouth	10	1	4	5	-9	-8.2	7

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.