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Premier League

Referee: J Brooks

Chelsea

U U T S T

2–0

Full-time

Brentford

S U S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Chelsea Brentford

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

17%

83%

Points per game

0,8

2,7

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

83%

50%

Both score Ø 67%

100%

33%

Average goals

3,8

3,0

Scored

2,0

2,5

Conceded

1,8

0,5

Goal diff per game

+0,2

+2,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Premier League · 21/21 matches

Win Ø 43%

38%

48%

Points per game

1,5

1,6

Over 2.5 Ø 60%

62%

57%

Both score Ø 60%

62%

57%

Average goals

2,8

3,0

Scored

1,6

1,7

Conceded

1,1

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,5

+0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

1,59 xG 1,52

46% Possession 54%

6 Shots 15

2 Shots on target 5

2 Blocked shots 5

6 Goalkeeper saves 0

3 Corners 9

0 Offside 1

7 Free kicks against 10

3 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Chelsea 8. · Brentford 6. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Arsenal	21	15	4	2	+26	+21.8	49
2	Man City	22	13	4	5	+24	+15.5	43
3	Aston Villa	21	13	4	4	+9	-4.9	43
4	Man United	22	9	8	5	+6	+13.2	35
5	Liverpool	21	10	5	6	+4	+8.5	35
6	Brentford	21	10	3	8	+7	+6.1	33
7	Newcastle	21	9	5	7	+5	+8.0	32
8	Chelsea	21	8	7	6	+10	+7.6	31
9	Fulham	21	9	4	8	+0	-5.1	31
10	Sunderland	21	7	9	5	-1	-12.8	30
11	Brighton	21	7	8	6	+3	+2.6	29
12	Everton	21	8	5	8	-2	-7.1	29
13	Crystal Palace	21	7	7	7	-1	+5.9	28
14	Tottenham	21	7	6	8	+3	-6.5	27
15	Bournemouth	21	6	8	7	-6	+1.5	26
16	Leeds	21	5	7	9	-8	-0.9	22
17	Nott'm Forest	21	6	3	12	-13	-4.8	21
18	West Ham	21	3	5	13	-21	-14.8	14
19	Burnley	21	3	4	14	-19	-23.8	13
20	Wolves	21	1	4	16	-26	-9.7	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Arsenal	11	9	2	0	+21	+14.0	29
2	Man City	11	8	2	1	+19	+12.2	26
3	Aston Villa	10	8	1	1	+10	-0.5	25
4	Brentford	11	7	3	1	+13	+6.2	24
5	Newcastle	11	7	2	2	+7	+7.9	23
6	Man United	11	6	3	2	+7	+10.9	21
7	Sunderland	10	5	5	0	+8	-3.7	20
8	Fulham	11	6	2	3	+6	-0.8	20
9	Liverpool	10	6	2	2	+5	+6.2	20
10	Brighton	10	5	4	1	+7	+4.0	19
11	Bournemouth	11	5	4	2	+5	+6.7	19
12	Leeds	10	4	4	2	+5	+6.6	16
13	Chelsea	10	4	3	3	+4	+4.4	15
14	Everton	11	4	3	4	-1	-1.9	15
15	Crystal Palace	11	2	6	3	-2	+7.1	12
16	Nott'm Forest	10	3	1	6	-5	+2.3	10
17	Tottenham	10	2	3	5	+0	+0.3	9
18	Burnley	11	2	3	6	-5	-10.4	9
19	West Ham	11	2	1	8	-12	-5.8	7
20	Wolves	10	1	1	8	-13	-2.5	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Arsenal	10	6	2	2	+5	+7.8	20
2	Tottenham	11	5	3	3	+3	-6.8	18
3	Aston Villa	11	5	3	3	-1	-4.5	18
4	Man City	11	5	2	4	+5	+3.2	17
5	Chelsea	11	4	4	3	+6	+3.2	16
6	Crystal Palace	10	5	1	4	+1	-1.2	16
7	Liverpool	11	4	3	4	-1	+2.4	15
8	Man United	11	3	5	3	-1	+2.3	14
9	Everton	10	4	2	4	-1	-5.2	14
10	Fulham	10	3	2	5	-6	-4.2	11
11	Nott'm Forest	11	3	2	6	-8	-7.1	11
12	Brighton	11	2	4	5	-4	-1.5	10
13	Sunderland	11	2	4	5	-9	-9.1	10
14	Newcastle	10	2	3	5	-2	+0.1	9
15	Brentford	10	3	0	7	-6	-0.1	9
16	West Ham	10	1	4	5	-9	-9.0	7
17	Bournemouth	10	1	4	5	-11	-5.3	7
18	Leeds	11	1	3	7	-13	-7.5	6
19	Burnley	10	1	1	8	-14	-13.4	4
20	Wolves	11	0	3	8	-13	-7.3	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.