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Premier League
Referee: Anthony Taylor
Middlesbrough
T T S U T
1–2
Full-time
Southampton
T T U U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Middlesbrough Southampton
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 17%
17%
17%
Points per game
0,8
0,8
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
67%
33%
Both score Ø 25%
33%
17%
Average goals
2,5
2,0
Scored
0,7
0,5
Conceded
1,8
1,5
Goal diff per game
-1,2
-1,0
This season — Premier League · 36/35 matches
Win Ø 23%
14%
31%
Points per game
0,8
1,2
Over 2.5 Ø 47%
42%
51%
Both score Ø 43%
42%
43%
Average goals
2,1
2,4
Scored
0,7
1,1
Conceded
1,3
1,3
Goal diff per game
-0,6
-0,2
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

41% Possession 59%
14 Shots 14
3 Shots on target 4
6 Blocked shots 4
2 Goalkeeper saves 2
6 Corners 3
2 Offside 0
19 Free kicks against 11
3 Yellow cards 0
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Middlesbrough 19. · Southampton 10.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Chelsea 36 28 3 5 +47 87
2 Tottenham 35 23 8 4 +48 77
3 Man City 36 21 9 6 +34 72
4 Liverpool 36 20 10 6 +29 70
5 Arsenal 35 20 6 9 +26 66
6 Man United 35 17 14 4 +24 65
7 Everton 37 17 10 10 +20 61
8 West Brom 36 12 9 15 -5 45
9 Leicester 36 12 7 17 -10 43
10 Southampton 35 11 9 15 -7 42
11 Bournemouth 36 11 9 16 -13 42
12 West Ham 36 11 9 16 -14 42
13 Stoke 36 10 11 15 -13 41
14 Burnley 36 11 7 18 -14 40
15 Watford 36 11 7 18 -22 40
16 Crystal Palace 36 11 5 20 -15 38
17 Swansea 36 10 5 21 -28 35
18 Hull 36 9 7 20 -33 34
19 Middlesbrough 36 5 13 18 -22 28
20 Sunderland 35 6 6 23 -32 24

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Middlesbrough Southampton
42′
J. Rodriguez 0–1
S. Long
Half-time 0–1
46′
🔁 N. Redmond
↦ S. Boufal
57′
N. Redmond 0–2
J. Rodriguez
G. Leadbitter 🔁
↦ A. Forshaw
60′
V. Fischer 🔁
↦ S. Downing
60′
Adam Clayton 🟨
66′
1–2 P. Bamford
V. Fischer
72′
74′
🔁 S. Davis
↦ P. Højbjerg
Ben Gibson 🟨
86′
87′
🔁 C. Austin
↦ S. Long
Marten de Roon 🟨
90′
Full-time 1–2

Line-ups

Middlesbrough

4-3-3
12 B. Guzan G
3 G. Friend D
2 Fábio D
6 B. Gibson D
25 C. Chambers D
19 S. Downing F
8 A. Clayton M
34 A. Forshaw M
14 M. de Roon M
10 Álvaro Negredo F
20 P. Bamford F
Bench (7)
7 G. Leadbitter
11 V. Fischer
1 D. Konstantopoulos
5 B. Espinosa
17 Barragán
18 C. Stuani
37 Adama Traoré

Coach: S. Agnew

Southampton

4-3-3
1 F. Forster G
3 M. Yoshida D
12 M. Cáceres D
21 R. Bertrand D
26 J. Pied D
14 Oriol Romeu M
4 J. Clasie M
23 P. Højbjerg M
19 S. Boufal F
7 S. Long F
9 J. Rodriguez F
Bench (7)
22 N. Redmond
8 S. Davis
10 C. Austin
16 J. Ward-Prowse
24 J. Stephens
33 M. Targett
40 M. Hassen

Coach: C. Puel

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

Anthony Taylor · 162 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,7 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
18,2 / match
Below average

🟥 Red cards: 0,13 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.