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Championship

Referee: S Martin

Burnley

S U S T S

4–0

Full-time

Luton

T T U T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Burnley Luton

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

67%

17%

Points per game

2,2

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 25%

50%

Both score Ø 25%

17%

33%

Average goals

2,2

1,7

Scored

1,5

0,5

Conceded

0,7

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,8

-0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Championship · 35/35 matches

Win Ø 39%

54%

23%

Points per game

2,0

0,9

Over 2.5 Ø 35%

23%

46%

Both score Ø 37%

23%

51%

Average goals

1,6

2,5

Scored

1,3

0,9

Conceded

0,3

1,6

Goal diff per game

+1,0

-0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

2,74 xG 0,24

72% Possession 28%

16 Shots 3

3 Shots on target 2

6 Blocked shots 0

2 Goalkeeper saves 0

6 Corners 4

1 Offside 1

5 Free kicks against 18

3 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Burnley 2. · Luton 22. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leeds	35	22	10	3	+50	+43.0	76
2	Burnley	35	19	14	2	+35	+10.0	71
3	Sheffield United	33	21	6	6	+21	+11.8	69
4	Sunderland	33	18	10	5	+21	+10.7	64
5	Coventry	35	16	7	12	+6	+17.6	55
6	West Brom	35	12	16	7	+13	+8.3	52
7	Bristol City	34	13	13	8	+8	+6.4	52
8	Blackburn	35	15	7	13	+5	-0.2	52
9	Middlesbrough	35	14	8	13	+9	+13.5	50
10	Norwich	36	12	13	11	+8	+10.0	49
11	Watford	36	14	7	15	-4	-7.8	49
12	Millwall	36	12	12	12	-1	+3.2	48
13	Sheffield Weds	35	12	9	14	-9	-2.8	45
14	QPR	35	11	11	13	-4	-5.3	44
15	Preston	35	9	16	10	-5	+0.1	43
16	Swansea	35	11	8	16	-9	-2.1	41
17	Portsmouth	35	10	9	16	-14	-10.6	39
18	Oxford	36	9	12	15	-16	-20.6	39
19	Hull	35	9	9	17	-9	-4.3	36
20	Stoke	36	8	12	16	-14	-17.8	36
21	Cardiff	35	8	12	15	-19	-13.9	36
22	Luton	35	8	7	20	-23	-7.2	31
23	Plymouth	35	6	12	17	-34	-33.3	30
24	Derby	35	7	8	20	-15	-8.8	29

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leeds	18	14	3	1	+36	+28.0	45
2	Burnley	17	9	8	0	+18	+5.6	35
3	Sunderland	16	10	5	1	+15	+9.3	35
4	Sheffield United	16	11	2	3	+11	+11.6	35
5	Blackburn	18	10	3	5	+10	+5.8	33
6	Coventry	18	10	3	5	+9	+10.1	33
7	Bristol City	16	9	5	2	+13	+8.8	32
8	Watford	18	10	2	6	+4	-0.7	32
9	Norwich	18	8	7	3	+18	+13.1	31
10	West Brom	17	8	7	2	+12	+8.5	31
11	Portsmouth	17	8	5	4	+10	+3.8	29
12	Middlesbrough	18	8	5	5	+6	+7.0	29
13	Oxford	18	8	5	5	+1	-4.3	29
14	Preston	18	6	10	2	+5	+5.1	28
15	QPR	18	7	5	6	+3	+3.9	26
16	Luton	18	7	5	6	+1	+5.3	26
17	Plymouth	17	6	7	4	+2	-5.4	25
18	Millwall	18	7	4	7	+2	+5.8	25
19	Cardiff	18	7	3	8	-1	-1.9	24
20	Swansea	17	6	5	6	+5	+7.8	23
21	Stoke	18	5	8	5	+1	-5.3	23
22	Sheffield Weds	18	5	7	6	+0	+3.6	22
23	Derby	17	6	3	8	+3	+1.0	21
24	Hull	18	3	7	8	-4	+3.3	16

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Burnley	18	10	6	2	+17	+4.4	36
2	Sheffield United	17	10	4	3	+10	+0.2	34
3	Leeds	17	8	7	2	+14	+15.0	31
4	Sunderland	17	8	5	4	+6	+1.4	29
5	Millwall	18	5	8	5	-3	-2.6	23
6	Sheffield Weds	17	7	2	8	-9	-6.4	23
7	Coventry	17	6	4	7	-3	+7.4	22
8	Middlesbrough	17	6	3	8	+3	+6.5	21
9	West Brom	18	4	9	5	+1	-0.2	21
10	Bristol City	18	4	8	6	-5	-2.3	20
11	Hull	17	6	2	9	-5	-7.6	20
12	Blackburn	17	5	4	8	-5	-6.0	19
13	QPR	17	4	6	7	-7	-9.2	18
14	Norwich	18	4	6	8	-10	-3.1	18
15	Swansea	18	5	3	10	-14	-10.0	18
16	Watford	18	4	5	9	-8	-7.1	17
17	Preston	17	3	6	8	-10	-5.1	15
18	Stoke	18	3	4	11	-15	-12.5	13
19	Cardiff	17	1	9	7	-18	-11.9	12
20	Oxford	18	1	7	10	-17	-16.2	10
21	Portsmouth	18	2	4	12	-24	-14.5	10
22	Derby	18	1	5	12	-18	-9.7	8
23	Luton	17	1	2	14	-24	-12.5	5
24	Plymouth	18	0	5	13	-36	-28.0	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.