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Championship

Referee: J Simpson

Luton

U S S T U

0–1

Full-time

Burnley

U S S S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Luton Burnley

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

50%

67%

Points per game

1,8

2,3

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

33%

67%

Both score Ø 42%

33%

50%

Average goals

2,2

2,3

Scored

1,2

1,8

Conceded

1,0

0,5

Goal diff per game

+0,2

+1,3

This season — Championship · 29/31 matches

Win Ø 55%

45%

65%

Points per game

1,7

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 45%

38%

52%

Both score Ø 52%

45%

58%

Average goals

2,3

2,9

Scored

1,3

2,0

Conceded

1,0

0,9

Goal diff per game

+0,3

+1,1

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

43% Possession 57%

7 Shots 9

2 Shots on target 2

1 Blocked shots 4

1 Goalkeeper saves 3

7 Corners 5

1 Offside 1

14 Free kicks against 11

1 Yellow cards 1

1 Red cards 0

The table before the match Luton 5. · Burnley 1. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Burnley	31	20	9	2	+35	69
2	Sheffield United	32	18	7	7	+24	61
3	Middlesbrough	31	16	6	9	+17	54
4	Millwall	31	14	7	10	+7	49
5	Luton	29	13	9	7	+8	48
6	Sunderland	30	13	8	9	+13	47
7	Watford	32	12	11	9	+3	47
8	Blackburn	31	14	4	13	-4	46
9	Norwich	31	13	6	12	+7	45
10	West Brom	31	12	9	10	+7	45
11	Swansea	31	11	9	11	-1	42
12	Hull	32	11	8	13	-9	41
13	Preston	31	11	8	12	-9	41
14	Reading	32	12	5	15	-12	41
15	Bristol City	31	10	10	11	+1	40
16	QPR	32	10	9	13	-10	39
17	Coventry	29	10	8	11	-1	38
18	Birmingham	31	10	8	13	-4	38
19	Stoke	31	10	7	14	-2	37
20	Cardiff	33	9	8	16	-11	35
21	Rotherham	31	7	12	12	-8	33
22	Wigan	31	7	9	15	-21	30
23	Huddersfield	31	7	7	17	-14	28
24	Blackpool	31	6	10	15	-16	28

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Burnley	17	12	5	0	+23	41
2	Sheffield United	16	10	3	3	+18	33
3	Millwall	15	9	4	2	+13	31
4	Reading	15	9	3	3	+7	30
5	Middlesbrough	15	8	5	2	+11	29
6	Blackburn	14	9	1	4	+7	28
7	West Brom	16	7	5	4	+7	26
8	Watford	15	7	4	4	+7	25
9	Coventry	15	7	4	4	+5	25
10	Swansea	15	7	2	6	+4	23
11	Bristol City	17	6	5	6	+3	23
12	Sunderland	15	6	4	5	+4	22
13	Norwich	16	6	4	6	+2	22
14	Luton	14	5	6	3	+4	21
15	Hull	16	6	3	7	-5	21
16	Rotherham	14	5	5	4	+7	20
17	Birmingham	17	5	5	7	+0	20
18	Cardiff	17	5	5	7	-3	20
19	Stoke	16	5	4	7	+2	19
20	QPR	16	5	4	7	-5	19
21	Huddersfield	15	5	3	7	-1	18
22	Blackpool	15	3	5	7	-5	14
23	Preston	16	3	5	8	-11	14
24	Wigan	16	3	3	10	-18	12

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Burnley	14	8	4	2	+12	28
2	Sheffield United	16	8	4	4	+6	28
3	Luton	15	8	3	4	+4	27
4	Preston	15	8	3	4	+2	27
5	Sunderland	15	7	4	4	+9	25
6	Middlesbrough	16	8	1	7	+6	25
7	Norwich	15	7	2	6	+5	23
8	Watford	17	5	7	5	-4	22
9	Hull	16	5	5	6	-4	20
10	QPR	16	5	5	6	-5	20
11	West Brom	15	5	4	6	+0	19
12	Swansea	16	4	7	5	-5	19
13	Wigan	15	4	6	5	-3	18
14	Stoke	15	5	3	7	-4	18
15	Birmingham	14	5	3	6	-4	18
16	Millwall	16	5	3	8	-6	18
17	Blackburn	17	5	3	9	-11	18
18	Bristol City	14	4	5	5	-2	17
19	Cardiff	16	4	3	9	-8	15
20	Blackpool	16	3	5	8	-11	14
21	Coventry	14	3	4	7	-6	13
22	Rotherham	17	2	7	8	-15	13
23	Reading	17	3	2	12	-19	11
24	Huddersfield	16	2	4	10	-13	10

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.