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Championship

Referee: M Donohue

Luton

T T U T T

1–4

Full-time

Burnley

S U T T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Luton Burnley

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 9%

17%

Points per game

0,2

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

83%

67%

Both score Ø 100%

100%

Average goals

4,5

3,3

Scored

1,2

1,5

Conceded

3,3

1,8

Goal diff per game

-2,2

-0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–2

1,43 xG 1,46

58% Possession 42%

10 Shots 11

3 Shots on target 6

5 Blocked shots 2

2 Goalkeeper saves 2

5 Corners 4

2 Offside 3

11 Free kicks against 17

2 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sheffield Weds	1	1	0	0	+4	+4.4	3
2	Blackburn	1	1	0	0	+2	+1.0	3
3	West Brom	1	1	0	0	+2	+0.6	3
4	Sheffield United	1	1	0	0	+2	+0.4	3
5	Sunderland	1	1	0	0	+2	+0.8	3
6	Oxford	1	1	0	0	+2	+0.1	3
7	Watford	1	1	0	0	+1	-0.9	3
8	Middlesbrough	1	1	0	0	+1	+2.4	3
9	Stoke	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.2	3
10	Leeds	1	0	1	0	+0	+2.5	1
11	Portsmouth	1	0	1	0	+0	-2.5	1
12	Hull	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.4	1
13	Bristol City	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.4	1
14	Millwall	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.9	0
15	Swansea	1	0	0	1	-1	-2.4	0
16	Coventry	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.2	0
17	Derby	1	0	0	1	-2	-1.0	0
18	QPR	1	0	0	1	-2	-0.6	0
19	Preston	1	0	0	1	-2	-0.4	0
20	Cardiff	1	0	0	1	-2	-0.8	0
21	Norwich	1	0	0	1	-2	-0.1	0
22	Plymouth	1	0	0	1	-4	-4.4	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sheffield Weds	1	1	0	0	+4	+4.4	3
2	Blackburn	1	1	0	0	+2	+1.0	3
3	Oxford	1	1	0	0	+2	+0.1	3
4	Middlesbrough	1	1	0	0	+1	+2.4	3
5	Stoke	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.2	3
6	Leeds	1	0	1	0	+0	+2.5	1
7	Hull	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.4	1
8	Millwall	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.9	0
9	QPR	1	0	0	1	-2	-0.6	0
10	Preston	1	0	0	1	-2	-0.4	0
11	Cardiff	1	0	0	1	-2	-0.8	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	West Brom	1	1	0	0	+2	+0.6	3
2	Sheffield United	1	1	0	0	+2	+0.4	3
3	Sunderland	1	1	0	0	+2	+0.8	3
4	Watford	1	1	0	0	+1	-0.9	3
5	Portsmouth	1	0	1	0	+0	-2.5	1
6	Bristol City	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.4	1
7	Swansea	1	0	0	1	-1	-2.4	0
8	Coventry	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.2	0
9	Derby	1	0	0	1	-2	-1.0	0
10	Norwich	1	0	0	1	-2	-0.1	0
11	Plymouth	1	0	0	1	-4	-4.4	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.