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Championship

Referee: A Kitchen

Watford

T T U T S

2–0

Full-time

Luton

T U T T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Watford Luton

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 9%

17%

Points per game

0,7

0,3

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

67%

17%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

2,7

2,2

Scored

0,8

0,7

Conceded

1,8

1,5

Goal diff per game

-1,0

-0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Championship · 33/33 matches

Win Ø 30%

39%

21%

Points per game

1,4

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 56%

64%

48%

Both score Ø 58%

61%

55%

Average goals

2,8

2,5

Scored

1,3

0,9

Conceded

1,5

1,6

Goal diff per game

-0,2

-0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

2,42 xG 0,69

54% Possession 46%

10 Shots 10

5 Shots on target 2

0 Blocked shots 4

2 Goalkeeper saves 3

4 Corners 6

2 Offside 1

13 Free kicks against 17

2 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Watford 11. · Luton 24. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leeds	33	21	9	3	+48	+42.5	72
2	Burnley	34	18	14	2	+34	+9.8	68
3	Sheffield United	31	20	6	5	+22	+12.4	66
4	Sunderland	32	17	10	5	+20	+10.8	61
5	West Brom	34	12	15	7	+13	+8.9	51
6	Blackburn	34	15	6	13	+5	-0.7	51
7	Bristol City	33	12	13	8	+6	+5.4	49
8	Coventry	33	14	7	12	+4	+17.3	49
9	Norwich	34	12	11	11	+8	+9.4	47
10	Millwall	34	11	12	11	+0	+5.1	45
11	Watford	33	13	6	14	-5	-10.3	45
12	Sheffield Weds	34	12	9	13	-8	-2.8	45
13	Middlesbrough	33	12	8	13	+6	+11.7	44
14	QPR	34	11	11	12	-3	-5.8	44
15	Preston	34	9	15	10	-5	-1.0	42
16	Swansea	34	11	7	16	-9	-1.1	40
17	Portsmouth	34	10	9	15	-13	-10.4	39
18	Oxford	34	9	11	14	-15	-17.9	38
19	Stoke	33	8	11	14	-11	-18.2	35
20	Hull	33	8	9	16	-10	-6.3	33
21	Cardiff	33	7	12	14	-19	-13.9	33
22	Plymouth	34	6	12	16	-32	-31.0	30
23	Derby	34	7	8	19	-14	-8.0	29
24	Luton	33	7	7	19	-22	-5.7	28

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leeds	17	14	2	1	+36	+27.5	44
2	Burnley	17	9	8	0	+18	+5.6	35
3	Sunderland	16	10	5	1	+15	+9.3	35
4	Sheffield United	15	11	2	2	+13	+11.6	35
5	Bristol City	16	9	5	2	+13	+8.8	32
6	Blackburn	17	10	2	5	+10	+5.3	32
7	West Brom	17	8	7	2	+12	+8.5	31
8	Norwich	17	8	6	3	+18	+12.0	30
9	Coventry	17	9	3	5	+8	+11.4	30
10	Portsmouth	17	8	5	4	+10	+3.8	29
11	Watford	16	9	2	5	+3	-3.3	29
12	Oxford	17	8	5	4	+2	-2.8	29
13	Preston	17	6	9	2	+5	+4.0	27
14	Middlesbrough	17	7	5	5	+5	+6.2	26
15	QPR	17	7	5	5	+4	+3.5	26
16	Millwall	17	7	4	6	+4	+6.8	25
17	Plymouth	17	6	7	4	+2	-5.4	25
18	Swansea	17	6	5	6	+5	+7.8	23
19	Luton	17	6	5	6	+0	+5.1	23
20	Stoke	16	5	7	4	+3	-4.5	22
21	Sheffield Weds	17	5	7	5	+1	+3.5	22
22	Derby	17	6	3	8	+3	+1.0	21
23	Cardiff	16	6	3	7	-1	-2.0	21
24	Hull	17	2	7	8	-6	+1.0	13

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Burnley	17	9	6	2	+16	+4.2	33
2	Sheffield United	16	9	4	3	+9	+0.7	31
3	Leeds	16	7	7	2	+12	+14.9	28
4	Sunderland	16	7	5	4	+5	+1.5	26
5	Sheffield Weds	17	7	2	8	-9	-6.4	23
6	West Brom	17	4	8	5	+1	+0.3	20
7	Hull	16	6	2	8	-4	-7.3	20
8	Millwall	17	4	8	5	-4	-1.8	20
9	Coventry	16	5	4	7	-4	+5.9	19
10	Blackburn	17	5	4	8	-5	-6.0	19
11	Middlesbrough	16	5	3	8	+1	+5.5	18
12	QPR	17	4	6	7	-7	-9.2	18
13	Bristol City	17	3	8	6	-7	-3.3	17
14	Norwich	17	4	5	8	-10	-2.6	17
15	Swansea	17	5	2	10	-14	-8.9	17
16	Watford	17	4	4	9	-8	-7.0	16
17	Preston	17	3	6	8	-10	-5.1	15
18	Stoke	17	3	4	10	-14	-13.7	13
19	Cardiff	17	1	9	7	-18	-11.9	12
20	Portsmouth	17	2	4	11	-23	-14.2	10
21	Oxford	17	1	6	10	-17	-15.1	9
22	Derby	17	1	5	11	-17	-8.9	8
23	Luton	16	1	2	13	-22	-10.8	5
24	Plymouth	17	0	5	12	-34	-25.7	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.