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Championship

Referee: D Bond

Burnley

T T U T S

1–1

Full-time

Luton

T S U T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Burnley Luton

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

33%

17%

Points per game

1,2

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 34%

50%

17%

Both score Ø 50%

67%

33%

Average goals

2,3

2,2

Scored

1,0

0,5

Conceded

1,3

1,7

Goal diff per game

-0,3

-1,2

This season — Championship · 1/1 matches

Win Ø 50%

100%

Points per game

3,0

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 0%

Both score Ø 0%

Average goals

1,0

0,0

Scored

1,0

0,0

Conceded

0,0

Goal diff per game

+1,0

+0,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

71% Possession 29%

13 Shots 13

1 Shots on target 2

5 Blocked shots 8

1 Goalkeeper saves 0

11 Corners 2

1 Offside 3

10 Free kicks against 11

2 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Burnley 7. · Luton 16. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Birmingham	2	1	1	0	+1	4
2	Millwall	1	1	0	0	+2	3
3	Hull	1	1	0	0	+1	3
4	Watford	1	1	0	0	+1	3
5	Blackburn	1	1	0	0	+1	3
6	Cardiff	1	1	0	0	+1	3
7	Burnley	1	1	0	0	+1	3
8	Blackpool	1	1	0	0	+1	3
9	Wigan	2	0	2	0	+0	2
10	Sunderland	1	0	1	0	+0	1
11	Coventry	1	0	1	0	+0	1
12	Middlesbrough	1	0	1	0	+0	1
13	West Brom	1	0	1	0	+0	1
14	Rotherham	1	0	1	0	+0	1
15	Swansea	1	0	1	0	+0	1
16	Luton	1	0	1	0	+0	1
17	Preston	1	0	1	0	+0	1
18	Norwich	2	0	1	1	-1	1
19	Bristol City	1	0	0	1	-1	0
20	Sheffield United	1	0	0	1	-1	0
21	QPR	1	0	0	1	-1	0
22	Reading	1	0	0	1	-1	0
23	Huddersfield	2	0	0	2	-2	0
24	Stoke	1	0	0	1	-2	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Millwall	1	1	0	0	+2	3
2	Hull	1	1	0	0	+1	3
3	Birmingham	1	1	0	0	+1	3
4	Watford	1	1	0	0	+1	3
5	Blackburn	1	1	0	0	+1	3
6	Cardiff	1	1	0	0	+1	3
7	Blackpool	1	1	0	0	+1	3
8	Norwich	1	0	1	0	+0	1
9	Sunderland	1	0	1	0	+0	1
10	Middlesbrough	1	0	1	0	+0	1
11	Rotherham	1	0	1	0	+0	1
12	Luton	1	0	1	0	+0	1
13	Wigan	1	0	1	0	+0	1
14	Huddersfield	1	0	0	1	-1	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Burnley	1	1	0	0	+1	3
2	Wigan	1	0	1	0	+0	1
3	Coventry	1	0	1	0	+0	1
4	West Brom	1	0	1	0	+0	1
5	Swansea	1	0	1	0	+0	1
6	Birmingham	1	0	1	0	+0	1
7	Preston	1	0	1	0	+0	1
8	Bristol City	1	0	0	1	-1	0
9	Huddersfield	1	0	0	1	-1	0
10	Sheffield United	1	0	0	1	-1	0
11	QPR	1	0	0	1	-1	0
12	Norwich	1	0	0	1	-1	0
13	Reading	1	0	0	1	-1	0
14	Stoke	1	0	0	1	-2	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.