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La Liga

Referee: Mateo Busquets

Valladolid

S T T S T

0–3

Full-time

Real Madrid

S S S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Valladolid Real Madrid

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 67%

33%

100%

Points per game

1,0

3,0

Over 2.5 Ø 84%

67%

100%

Both score Ø 67%

50%

83%

Average goals

2,7

5,3

Scored

1,0

4,2

Conceded

1,7

1,2

Goal diff per game

-0,7

+3,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — La Liga · 20/20 matches

Win Ø 45%

20%

70%

Points per game

0,8

2,3

Over 2.5 Ø 63%

60%

65%

Both score Ø 50%

45%

55%

Average goals

2,7

3,4

Scored

0,7

2,4

Conceded

2,0

1,0

Goal diff per game

-1,3

+1,4

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

0,19 xG 1,99

32% Possession 68%

6 Shots 20

2 Shots on target 4

1 Blocked shots 9

1 Goalkeeper saves 2

1 Corners 7

2 Offside 3

11 Free kicks against 12

3 Yellow cards 3

1 Red cards 0

The table before the match Valladolid 20. · Real Madrid 1. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Real Madrid	20	14	4	2	+27	+21.2	46
2	Ath Madrid	21	13	6	2	+21	+18.9	45
3	Barcelona	20	12	3	5	+29	+22.6	39
4	Ath Bilbao	20	11	6	3	+13	+8.9	39
5	Villarreal	21	9	7	5	+7	+12.9	34
6	Mallorca	21	9	3	9	-7	-1.0	30
7	Sociedad	20	8	4	8	+3	+2.3	28
8	Girona	20	8	4	8	+1	+3.9	28
9	Betis	21	7	7	7	-3	+3.7	28
10	Osasuna	21	6	9	6	-5	-6.4	27
11	Sevilla	21	7	6	8	-6	-3.3	27
12	Vallecano	20	6	8	6	+0	-2.9	26
13	Celta	20	7	3	10	-3	+6.1	24
14	Las Palmas	21	6	5	10	-8	-21.2	23
15	Leganes	20	5	7	8	-10	-18.1	22
16	Getafe	20	4	8	8	-3	-4.7	20
17	Alaves	20	5	5	10	-8	-3.4	20
18	Espanol	21	5	5	11	-13	-16.4	20
19	Valencia	20	3	7	10	-10	-8.1	16
20	Valladolid	20	4	3	13	-25	-15.2	15

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Real Madrid	10	9	0	1	+18	+17.0	27
2	Ath Madrid	11	8	3	0	+14	+17.5	27
3	Ath Bilbao	10	6	3	1	+9	+4.4	21
4	Celta	11	6	2	3	+7	+4.4	20
5	Osasuna	11	5	4	2	+4	+2.6	19
6	Espanol	11	5	3	3	+2	-3.4	18
7	Sevilla	11	5	3	3	+0	+2.0	18
8	Villarreal	10	4	4	2	+5	+5.0	16
9	Girona	10	5	1	4	+4	+6.3	16
10	Betis	10	4	4	2	+2	+10.1	16
11	Barcelona	8	5	0	3	+12	+15.2	15
12	Getafe	11	3	6	2	+3	+3.0	15
13	Mallorca	11	4	3	4	-3	-2.5	15
14	Sociedad	10	4	2	4	+1	+3.2	14
15	Las Palmas	11	3	4	4	-1	-6.1	13
16	Leganes	10	4	1	5	-6	-6.5	13
17	Valencia	10	3	3	4	+1	-0.7	12
18	Vallecano	9	3	3	3	+0	+2.9	12
19	Alaves	9	3	3	3	-1	-1.2	12
20	Valladolid	10	3	3	4	-5	-5.6	12

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	12	7	3	2	+17	+7.4	24
2	Real Madrid	10	5	4	1	+9	+4.2	19
3	Ath Madrid	10	5	3	2	+7	+1.4	18
4	Ath Bilbao	10	5	3	2	+4	+4.5	18
5	Villarreal	11	5	3	3	+2	+7.9	18
6	Mallorca	10	5	0	5	-4	+1.6	15
7	Sociedad	10	4	2	4	+2	-0.9	14
8	Vallecano	11	3	5	3	+0	-5.8	14
9	Girona	10	3	3	4	-3	-2.4	12
10	Betis	11	3	3	5	-5	-6.4	12
11	Las Palmas	10	3	1	6	-7	-15.1	10
12	Leganes	10	1	6	3	-4	-11.6	9
13	Sevilla	10	2	3	5	-6	-5.3	9
14	Alaves	11	2	2	7	-7	-2.2	8
15	Osasuna	10	1	5	4	-9	-8.9	8
16	Getafe	9	1	2	6	-6	-7.7	5
17	Celta	9	1	1	7	-10	+1.8	4
18	Valencia	10	0	4	6	-11	-7.4	4
19	Valladolid	10	1	0	9	-20	-9.6	3
20	Espanol	10	0	2	8	-15	-13.0	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.