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Championship
Referee: G Eltringham
Luton
S T U T S
2–2
Full-time
Millwall
S T S U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Luton Millwall
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 50%
50%
50%
Points per game
1,7
1,8
Over 2.5 Ø 25%
17%
33%
Both score Ø 42%
17%
67%
Average goals
1,5
2,3
Scored
0,7
1,3
Conceded
0,8
1,0
Goal diff per game
-0,2
+0,3
This season — Championship · 31/33 matches
Win Ø 45%
45%
45%
Points per game
1,6
1,6
Over 2.5 Ø 36%
35%
36%
Both score Ø 41%
42%
39%
Average goals
2,2
2,2
Scored
1,2
1,2
Conceded
1,0
1,0
Goal diff per game
+0,3
+0,2
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

62% Possession 38%
15 Shots 9
4 Shots on target 3
4 Blocked shots 2
1 Goalkeeper saves 2
6 Corners 2
0 Offside 2
11 Free kicks against 12
0 Yellow cards 1
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Luton 7. · Millwall 5.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Burnley 34 22 10 2 +40 76
2 Sheffield United 33 19 7 7 +25 64
3 Middlesbrough 33 17 6 10 +17 57
4 Blackburn 34 17 4 13 +0 55
5 Millwall 33 15 8 10 +8 53
6 Norwich 34 15 7 12 +11 52
7 Luton 31 14 9 8 +8 51
8 Watford 34 13 11 10 +3 50
9 Sunderland 33 13 9 11 +11 48
10 West Brom 33 13 9 11 +8 48
11 Preston 34 12 10 12 -8 46
12 Coventry 32 12 9 11 +2 45
13 Bristol City 33 11 11 11 +2 44
14 Reading 33 13 5 15 -10 44
15 Swansea 34 11 10 13 -4 43
16 Hull 34 11 9 14 -10 42
17 Stoke 34 11 7 16 -2 40
18 QPR 34 10 9 15 -14 39
19 Birmingham 34 10 8 16 -8 38
20 Rotherham 34 8 13 13 -9 37
21 Cardiff 34 9 8 17 -13 35
22 Huddersfield 33 8 7 18 -17 31
23 Blackpool 34 7 10 17 -18 31
24 Wigan 33 7 10 16 -22 31

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Luton Millwall
4′
Z. Flemming 0–1
T. Bradshaw
Half-time 0–1
46′
🟨 Charlie Cresswell
52′
T. Bradshaw 0–2
G. Honeyman
1–2 E. Adebayo
58′
F. Onyedinma 🔁
↦ C. Drameh
63′
C. Woodrow 🔁
↦ P. Mpanzu
69′
L. Berry 🔁
↦ G. Osho
72′
76′
🔁 S. Hutchinson
↦ T. Bradshaw
76′
🔁 G. Evans
↦ J. Shackleton
83′
🔁 O. Burke
↦ Z. Flemming
83′
🔁 S. Malone
↦ A. Voglsammer
2–2 L. Berry
J. Clark
87′
88′
🔁 D. Watmore
↦ R. Leonard
Full-time 2–2

Line-ups

Luton

3-4-1-2
34 E. Horvath G
32 G. Osho D
4 T. Lockyer D
29 A. Bell D
2 C. Drameh M
13 M. Nakamba M
17 P. Mpanzu M
45 A. Doughty M
18 J. Clark F
9 C. Morris F
11 E. Adebayo F
Bench (7)
23 F. Onyedinma
10 C. Woodrow
8 L. Berry
1 J. Shea
5 S. Bradley
25 J. Taylor
22 A. Campbell

Coach: R. Edwards

Millwall

4-2-3-1
1 G. Long G
2 D. McNamara D
15 C. Cresswell D
5 J. Cooper D
3 M. Wallace D
16 J. Shackleton M
18 R. Leonard M
39 G. Honeyman M
10 Z. Flemming M
21 A. Voglsammer M
9 T. Bradshaw F
Bench (7)
4 S. Hutchinson
6 G. Evans
7 O. Burke
11 S. Malone
19 D. Watmore
50 R. Esse
33 B. Bialkowski

Coach: G. Rowett

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H
2,23
U ✓
3,07
B
3,56
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
2,59
U2,5
1,50
O3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

G Eltringham · 124 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,4 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
23,6 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,16 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.