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Serie A

Referee: D Chiffi

Napoli

S S S S S

2–1

Full-time

Juventus

U U U S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Napoli Juventus

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 67%

100%

33%

Points per game

3,0

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

67%

33%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

3,0

2,2

Scored

2,3

1,3

Conceded

0,7

0,8

Goal diff per game

+1,7

+0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Serie A · 21/21 matches

Win Ø 57%

76%

38%

Points per game

2,4

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 46%

48%

43%

Both score Ø 39%

29%

48%

Average goals

2,3

2,4

Scored

1,7

1,6

Conceded

0,7

0,8

Goal diff per game

+1,0

+0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

2,37 xG 0,78

49% Possession 51%

14 Shots 5

3 Shots on target 2

6 Blocked shots 0

1 Goalkeeper saves 1

9 Corners 1

1 Offside 1

9 Free kicks against 15

0 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Napoli 1. · Juventus 5. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Napoli	21	16	2	3	+21	+13.3	50
2	Inter	20	14	5	1	+33	+22.8	47
3	Atalanta	22	14	4	4	+23	+15.9	46
4	Lazio	21	12	3	6	+9	+9.1	39
5	Juventus	21	8	13	0	+17	+12.5	37
6	Fiorentina	20	9	6	5	+12	+9.2	33
7	Bologna	20	8	9	3	+6	+5.4	33
8	Milan	20	8	7	5	+8	+13.0	31
9	Roma	21	7	6	8	+4	+1.8	27
10	Torino	22	6	8	8	-3	-7.1	26
11	Udinese	21	7	5	9	-8	-8.2	26
12	Genoa	21	5	8	8	-12	-9.1	23
13	Como	22	5	7	10	-9	+2.2	22
14	Cagliari	22	5	6	11	-13	-7.9	21
15	Empoli	21	4	8	9	-8	-10.7	20
16	Parma	21	4	8	9	-10	-13.9	20
17	Lecce	21	5	5	11	-21	-13.3	20
18	Verona	21	6	1	14	-23	-13.9	19
19	Venezia	21	3	6	12	-15	-13.6	15
20	Monza	21	2	7	12	-11	-7.7	13

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	11	7	3	1	+13	+10.0	24
2	Napoli	10	8	0	2	+9	+10.6	24
3	Atalanta	10	7	1	2	+13	+8.0	22
4	Roma	11	7	0	4	+12	+6.9	21
5	Lazio	10	6	3	1	+5	+5.7	21
6	Juventus	11	4	7	0	+8	+8.6	19
7	Fiorentina	10	5	3	2	+5	+8.4	18
8	Milan	10	4	5	1	+9	+10.0	17
9	Bologna	10	4	5	1	+6	+8.1	17
10	Como	11	4	3	4	+0	+2.9	15
11	Udinese	10	4	2	4	-2	-2.6	14
12	Torino	11	3	4	4	-1	-4.3	13
13	Lecce	10	3	4	3	-8	-1.1	13
14	Parma	11	3	3	5	-2	-4.2	12
15	Cagliari	11	3	3	5	-7	-1.2	12
16	Venezia	10	3	2	5	-2	+0.5	11
17	Verona	11	3	1	7	-14	-4.4	10
18	Genoa	11	1	6	4	-6	-4.2	9
19	Empoli	10	1	4	5	-7	-3.5	7
20	Monza	11	1	3	7	-6	-3.5	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Napoli	11	8	2	1	+12	+2.7	26
2	Atalanta	12	7	3	2	+10	+7.9	24
3	Inter	9	7	2	0	+20	+12.7	23
4	Juventus	10	4	6	0	+9	+3.9	18
5	Lazio	11	6	0	5	+4	+3.5	18
6	Bologna	10	4	4	2	+0	-2.7	16
7	Fiorentina	10	4	3	3	+7	+0.7	15
8	Milan	10	4	2	4	-1	+3.0	14
9	Genoa	10	4	2	4	-6	-4.9	14
10	Empoli	11	3	4	4	-1	-7.2	13
11	Torino	11	3	4	4	-2	-2.7	13
12	Udinese	11	3	3	5	-6	-5.5	12
13	Cagliari	11	2	3	6	-6	-6.7	9
14	Verona	10	3	0	7	-9	-9.4	9
15	Parma	10	1	5	4	-8	-9.7	8
16	Monza	10	1	4	5	-5	-4.2	7
17	Como	11	1	4	6	-9	-0.7	7
18	Lecce	11	2	1	8	-13	-12.2	7
19	Roma	10	0	6	4	-8	-5.0	6
20	Venezia	11	0	4	7	-13	-14.1	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.