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Championship

Referee: S Martin

Oxford

S U T U S

3–2

Full-time

Luton

T T T T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Oxford Luton

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

50%

Points per game

1,8

0,2

Over 2.5 Ø 25%

17%

33%

Both score Ø 42%

50%

33%

Average goals

2,0

1,7

Scored

1,2

0,3

Conceded

0,8

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,3

-1,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Championship · 27/27 matches

Win Ø 28%

30%

26%

Points per game

1,2

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 49%

41%

56%

Both score Ø 56%

56%

Average goals

2,6

Scored

1,1

1,0

Conceded

1,5

1,6

Goal diff per game

-0,4

-0,6

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–2

0,86 xG 0,69

50% Possession 50%

12 Shots 8

5 Shots on target 3

6 Blocked shots 4

1 Goalkeeper saves 3

6 Corners 5

1 Offside 3

11 Free kicks against 17

3 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Oxford 14. · Luton 23. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leeds	27	16	8	3	+32	+29.3	56
2	Burnley	27	14	11	2	+22	+4.7	53
3	Sheffield United	25	15	6	4	+19	+11.6	51
4	Sunderland	25	14	8	3	+18	+8.9	50
5	Blackburn	27	12	6	9	+7	+0.5	42
6	West Brom	27	9	14	4	+11	+4.9	41
7	Middlesbrough	27	11	8	8	+10	+14.4	41
8	Watford	27	12	5	10	+1	-3.2	41
9	Bristol City	26	9	10	7	+3	+5.1	37
10	Sheffield Weds	27	10	7	10	-5	-6.0	37
11	Norwich	27	9	9	9	+4	+5.6	36
12	QPR	27	8	11	8	-4	-4.0	35
13	Swansea	27	9	7	11	-3	+1.1	34
14	Oxford	27	8	8	11	-11	-14.3	32
15	Coventry	26	8	7	11	-2	+14.3	31
16	Preston	27	6	13	8	-6	-1.2	31
17	Millwall	26	7	9	10	+0	+6.0	30
18	Stoke	27	6	10	11	-8	-13.2	28
19	Derby	27	7	6	14	-6	-4.6	27
20	Cardiff	27	6	9	12	-12	-10.9	27
21	Hull	27	6	8	13	-10	-3.9	26
22	Portsmouth	26	6	8	12	-13	-14.8	26
23	Luton	27	7	5	15	-17	-3.1	26
24	Plymouth	27	4	9	14	-30	-27.3	21

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leeds	14	11	2	1	+26	+19.3	35
2	Sunderland	12	9	3	0	+14	+7.1	30
3	Sheffield United	12	9	2	1	+13	+11.7	29
4	Watford	13	9	2	2	+9	+2.2	29
5	Blackburn	14	8	2	4	+9	+5.0	26
6	Burnley	13	6	7	0	+11	+3.0	25
7	Oxford	14	7	4	3	+3	-2.8	25
8	Norwich	13	6	5	2	+13	+9.8	23
9	Bristol City	12	6	5	1	+10	+7.4	23
10	Middlesbrough	14	6	5	3	+5	+7.7	23
11	West Brom	13	5	7	1	+7	+4.7	22
12	Preston	14	5	7	2	+4	+4.6	22
13	Luton	14	6	4	4	+2	+4.2	22
14	Coventry	13	6	3	4	+7	+12.3	21
15	Swansea	13	5	5	3	+6	+9.0	20
16	Derby	13	6	2	5	+6	+2.8	20
17	Millwall	14	6	2	6	+3	+7.3	20
18	Sheffield Weds	14	5	5	4	+2	+1.1	20
19	QPR	14	5	5	4	+1	+4.0	20
20	Portsmouth	12	5	4	3	+7	+0.6	19
21	Plymouth	13	4	6	3	+2	-4.1	18
22	Stoke	14	4	6	4	+1	-3.7	18
23	Cardiff	14	5	2	7	-2	-4.1	17
24	Hull	14	2	6	6	-4	+1.4	12

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Burnley	14	8	4	2	+11	+1.6	28
2	Sheffield United	13	6	4	3	+6	-0.1	22
3	Leeds	13	5	6	2	+6	+10.0	21
4	Sunderland	13	5	5	3	+4	+1.8	20
5	West Brom	14	4	7	3	+4	+0.2	19
6	Middlesbrough	13	5	3	5	+5	+6.8	18
7	Sheffield Weds	13	5	2	6	-7	-7.1	17
8	Blackburn	13	4	4	5	-2	-4.5	16
9	QPR	13	3	6	4	-5	-8.0	15
10	Hull	13	4	2	7	-6	-5.3	14
11	Bristol City	14	3	5	6	-7	-2.3	14
12	Swansea	14	4	2	8	-9	-7.9	14
13	Norwich	14	3	4	7	-9	-4.2	13
14	Watford	14	3	3	8	-8	-5.4	12
15	Millwall	12	1	7	4	-3	-1.3	10
16	Coventry	13	2	4	7	-9	+2.1	10
17	Stoke	13	2	4	7	-9	-9.5	10
18	Cardiff	13	1	7	5	-10	-6.7	10
19	Preston	13	1	6	6	-10	-5.8	9
20	Derby	14	1	4	9	-12	-7.5	7
21	Oxford	13	1	4	8	-14	-11.5	7
22	Portsmouth	14	1	4	9	-20	-15.4	7
23	Luton	13	1	1	11	-19	-7.4	4
24	Plymouth	14	0	3	11	-32	-23.3	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.