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Championship

Referee: M Donohue

Birmingham

T T U T T

0–1

Full-time

Watford

S T T U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Birmingham Watford

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

17%

Points per game

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 67%

67%

Average goals

3,0

2,7

Scored

1,2

1,0

Conceded

1,8

1,7

Goal diff per game

-0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Championship · 37/37 matches

Win Ø 29%

27%

30%

Points per game

1,1

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

49%

51%

Both score Ø 56%

54%

57%

Average goals

2,7

2,8

Scored

1,1

1,4

Conceded

1,6

1,4

Goal diff per game

-0,4

+0,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

2,12 xG 1,48

52% Possession 48%

27 Shots 14

5 Shots on target 4

8 Blocked shots 3

2 Goalkeeper saves 5

7 Corners 6

2 Offside 5

11 Free kicks against 12

0 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Birmingham 21. · Watford 15. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leicester	37	26	4	7	+41	+29.7	82
2	Ipswich	37	23	9	5	+25	+20.4	78
3	Leeds	35	22	7	6	+38	+31.1	73
4	Southampton	34	20	7	7	+23	+26.3	67
5	West Brom	35	18	9	8	+24	+6.2	63
6	Norwich	35	17	7	11	+14	-0.7	58
7	Hull	37	16	10	11	+7	+6.7	58
8	Coventry	37	15	12	10	+16	+11.8	57
9	Middlesbrough	37	16	5	16	+1	+12.5	53
10	Preston	36	15	8	13	-6	-12.8	53
11	Cardiff	38	16	5	17	-8	-19.7	53
12	Sunderland	37	14	5	18	+3	+6.1	47
13	Bristol City	37	13	8	16	-1	-2.1	47
14	Swansea	38	12	10	16	-10	-8.6	46
15	Watford	37	11	12	14	+1	+1.6	45
16	Millwall	37	11	10	16	-12	-11.6	43
17	Plymouth	37	10	11	16	-7	-16.4	41
18	Blackburn	37	11	8	18	-13	-6.4	41
19	Stoke	37	11	8	18	-15	-3.1	41
20	QPR	37	10	9	18	-14	-7.4	39
21	Birmingham	37	10	9	18	-16	-9.3	39
22	Huddersfield	37	8	14	15	-19	-11.6	38
23	Sheffield Weds	37	11	5	21	-25	-6.1	38
24	Rotherham	37	3	10	24	-47	-36.6	19

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leeds	17	13	4	0	+26	+20.8	43
2	Ipswich	18	13	4	1	+18	+19.4	43
3	Norwich	18	13	2	3	+20	+9.0	41
4	Leicester	18	13	1	4	+22	+15.4	40
5	West Brom	17	12	3	2	+17	+9.3	39
6	Southampton	17	11	2	4	+20	+18.3	35
7	Coventry	18	8	8	2	+12	+7.5	32
8	Preston	19	9	4	6	-3	-6.3	31
9	Sunderland	18	10	0	8	+7	+7.7	30
10	Cardiff	19	9	3	7	+1	-7.3	30
11	Hull	19	7	7	5	+7	+7.5	28
12	Plymouth	18	8	4	6	+6	-6.4	28
13	Birmingham	18	7	6	5	+3	-1.1	27
14	Bristol City	19	8	3	8	+2	+1.1	27
15	Sheffield Weds	19	7	4	8	-3	+1.4	25
16	Middlesbrough	18	7	3	8	-1	+8.6	24
17	Blackburn	19	6	5	8	-4	+1.8	23
18	Swansea	19	6	5	8	-4	+0.3	23
19	Huddersfield	19	5	7	7	-5	-3.2	22
20	Stoke	18	6	4	8	-7	+0.4	22
21	Millwall	19	6	4	9	-11	-4.1	22
22	Watford	19	5	6	8	+3	+8.6	21
23	QPR	19	4	6	9	-8	-0.0	18
24	Rotherham	18	3	6	9	-7	-9.5	15

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leicester	19	13	3	3	+19	+14.3	42
2	Ipswich	19	10	5	4	+7	+1.0	35
3	Southampton	17	9	5	3	+3	+8.0	32
4	Leeds	18	9	3	6	+12	+10.2	30
5	Hull	18	9	3	6	+0	-0.8	30
6	Middlesbrough	19	9	2	8	+2	+3.9	29
7	Coventry	19	7	4	8	+4	+4.3	25
8	West Brom	18	6	6	6	+7	-3.1	24
9	Watford	18	6	6	6	-2	-7.0	24
10	Swansea	19	6	5	8	-6	-8.8	23
11	Cardiff	19	7	2	10	-9	-12.4	23
12	Preston	17	6	4	7	-3	-6.6	22
13	Millwall	18	5	6	7	-1	-7.5	21
14	QPR	18	6	3	9	-6	-7.4	21
15	Bristol City	18	5	5	8	-3	-3.2	20
16	Stoke	19	5	4	10	-8	-3.4	19
17	Blackburn	18	5	3	10	-9	-8.1	18
18	Sunderland	19	4	5	10	-4	-1.6	17
19	Norwich	17	4	5	8	-6	-9.7	17
20	Huddersfield	18	3	7	8	-14	-8.3	16
21	Plymouth	19	2	7	10	-13	-10.0	13
22	Sheffield Weds	18	4	1	13	-22	-7.5	13
23	Birmingham	19	3	3	13	-19	-8.1	12
24	Rotherham	19	0	4	15	-40	-27.1	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.