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Championship

Referee: D Bond

Millwall

T T S S U

1–0

Full-time

Birmingham

S S T T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Millwall Birmingham

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 33%

33%

Points per game

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

2,5

3,2

Scored

0,8

1,3

Conceded

1,7

1,8

Goal diff per game

-0,8

-0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Championship · 36/35 matches

Win Ø 29%

28%

29%

Points per game

1,1

Over 2.5 Ø 47%

42%

51%

Both score Ø 50%

42%

57%

Average goals

2,3

2,8

Scored

1,0

1,2

Conceded

1,3

1,6

Goal diff per game

-0,4

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

0,84 xG 1,11

48% Possession 52%

12 Shots 16

5 Shots on target 1

3 Blocked shots 5

1 Goalkeeper saves 4

4 Corners 4

17 Free kicks against 10

2 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Millwall 18. · Birmingham 20. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leicester	36	26	3	7	+41	+28.8	81
2	Ipswich	37	23	9	5	+25	+20.4	78
3	Leeds	35	22	7	6	+38	+31.1	73
4	Southampton	33	19	7	7	+21	+23.7	64
5	West Brom	34	17	9	8	+21	+6.1	60
6	Hull	36	16	9	11	+7	+7.5	57
7	Norwich	34	16	7	11	+9	-2.2	55
8	Coventry	36	14	12	10	+15	+11.5	54
9	Preston	35	15	8	12	-5	-11.9	53
10	Cardiff	37	16	5	16	-6	-17.7	53
11	Sunderland	36	14	5	17	+5	+8.7	47
12	Middlesbrough	35	14	5	16	-2	+11.8	47
13	Watford	36	11	12	13	+2	+1.8	45
14	Bristol City	36	12	8	16	-2	-2.0	44
15	Swansea	36	11	10	15	-11	-10.7	43
16	Plymouth	36	10	10	16	-7	-17.8	40
17	Blackburn	36	11	7	18	-13	-5.0	40
18	Millwall	36	10	10	16	-13	-11.3	40
19	QPR	36	10	9	17	-12	-7.4	39
20	Birmingham	35	10	9	16	-14	-8.8	39
21	Huddersfield	36	8	14	14	-16	-11.5	38
22	Stoke	36	10	8	18	-16	-4.0	38
23	Sheffield Weds	37	11	5	21	-25	-6.1	38
24	Rotherham	36	3	10	23	-42	-35.1	19

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leeds	17	13	4	0	+26	+20.8	43
2	Ipswich	18	13	4	1	+18	+19.4	43
3	Leicester	18	13	1	4	+22	+15.4	40
4	West Brom	17	12	3	2	+17	+9.3	39
5	Norwich	17	12	2	3	+15	+7.5	38
6	Southampton	16	10	2	4	+18	+15.7	32
7	Coventry	18	8	8	2	+12	+7.5	32
8	Preston	18	9	4	5	-2	-5.3	31
9	Sunderland	18	10	0	8	+7	+7.7	30
10	Cardiff	19	9	3	7	+1	-7.3	30
11	Plymouth	18	8	4	6	+6	-6.4	28
12	Hull	18	7	6	5	+7	+8.3	27
13	Birmingham	17	7	6	4	+4	-0.4	27
14	Sheffield Weds	19	7	4	8	-3	+1.4	25
15	Bristol City	18	7	3	8	+1	+1.3	24
16	Middlesbrough	18	7	3	8	-1	+8.6	24
17	Huddersfield	18	5	7	6	-2	-3.2	22
18	Blackburn	18	6	4	8	-4	+3.2	22
19	Stoke	18	6	4	8	-7	+0.4	22
20	Watford	18	5	6	7	+4	+8.8	21
21	Swansea	18	5	5	8	-6	-1.8	20
22	Millwall	18	5	4	9	-12	-3.8	19
23	QPR	18	4	6	8	-6	-0.1	18
24	Rotherham	18	3	6	9	-7	-9.5	15

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leicester	18	13	2	3	+19	+13.4	41
2	Ipswich	19	10	5	4	+7	+1.0	35
3	Southampton	17	9	5	3	+3	+8.0	32
4	Leeds	18	9	3	6	+12	+10.2	30
5	Hull	18	9	3	6	+0	-0.8	30
6	Watford	18	6	6	6	-2	-7.0	24
7	Middlesbrough	17	7	2	8	-1	+3.2	23
8	Swansea	18	6	5	7	-5	-9.0	23
9	Cardiff	18	7	2	9	-7	-10.4	23
10	Coventry	18	6	4	8	+3	+4.1	22
11	Preston	17	6	4	7	-3	-6.6	22
12	West Brom	17	5	6	6	+4	-3.2	21
13	Millwall	18	5	6	7	-1	-7.5	21
14	QPR	18	6	3	9	-6	-7.4	21
15	Bristol City	18	5	5	8	-3	-3.2	20
16	Blackburn	18	5	3	10	-9	-8.1	18
17	Sunderland	18	4	5	9	-2	+1.0	17
18	Norwich	17	4	5	8	-6	-9.7	17
19	Stoke	18	4	4	10	-9	-4.3	16
20	Huddersfield	18	3	7	8	-14	-8.3	16
21	Sheffield Weds	18	4	1	13	-22	-7.5	13
22	Plymouth	18	2	6	10	-13	-11.4	12
23	Birmingham	18	3	3	12	-18	-8.4	12
24	Rotherham	18	0	4	14	-35	-25.6	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.