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Ekstraklasa

Referee: D Kos

Legia

U S S U S

5–2

Full-time

Motor Lublin

T S U U U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Legia Motor Lublin

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

50%

17%

Points per game

2,0

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 17%

33%

Both score Ø 42%

67%

17%

Average goals

2,7

1,2

Scored

1,8

0,5

Conceded

0,8

0,7

Goal diff per game

+1,0

-0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Ekstraklasa · 6/5 matches

Win Ø 35%

50%

20%

Points per game

1,8

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 25%

50%

Both score Ø 44%

67%

20%

Average goals

2,8

1,2

Scored

1,8

0,6

Conceded

1,0

0,6

Goal diff per game

+0,8

+0,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–1

3,25 xG 1,29

61% Possession 39%

19 Shots 13

10 Shots on target 6

8 Blocked shots 2

3 Goalkeeper saves 5

5 Corners 6

2 Offside 1

17 Free kicks against 12

4 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Legia 4. · Motor Lublin 13. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Lech Poznan	7	5	1	1	+8	+1.3	16
2	Piast Gliwice	7	4	2	1	+3	+0.6	14
3	Cracovia	7	4	1	2	+3	-2.3	13
4	Legia	6	3	2	1	+5	+2.6	11
5	Widzew Lodz	6	3	2	1	+2	-1.6	11
6	Rakow	7	3	2	2	+2	+3.7	11
7	Pogon Szczecin	6	3	1	2	+3	+3.0	10
8	Jagiellonia	5	3	0	2	+1	+0.0	9
9	GKS Katowice	7	2	2	3	+0	-2.0	8
10	Gornik Zabrze	7	2	2	3	-2	-1.5	8
11	Zaglebie	7	2	2	3	-2	-0.6	8
12	Puszcza	7	1	4	2	+0	+1.2	7
13	Motor Lublin	5	1	3	1	+0	+0.8	6
14	Radomiak Radom	6	2	0	4	-4	-0.7	6
15	Korona Kielce	7	1	3	3	-5	-4.7	6
16	Lechia Gdansk	7	1	2	4	-7	-3.2	5
17	Slask Wroclaw	5	0	4	1	-2	+2.9	4
18	Stal Mielec	7	1	1	5	-5	+0.1	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Lech Poznan	3	3	0	0	+6	+1.6	9
2	Pogon Szczecin	3	3	0	0	+6	+5.2	9
3	Piast Gliwice	3	2	1	0	+3	-0.7	7
4	Widzew Lodz	3	2	1	0	+2	-0.2	7
5	Zaglebie	4	2	1	1	+1	+0.0	7
6	Legia	3	2	0	1	+4	+4.3	6
7	Puszcza	4	1	3	0	+3	+2.0	6
8	Jagiellonia	3	2	0	1	+2	+0.9	6
9	GKS Katowice	4	1	1	2	+0	-1.7	4
10	Gornik Zabrze	3	1	1	1	+0	+1.4	4
11	Cracovia	3	1	1	1	-1	-1.7	4
12	Stal Mielec	4	1	1	2	-1	+1.2	4
13	Slask Wroclaw	3	0	3	0	+0	+2.0	3
14	Radomiak Radom	3	1	0	2	-1	+2.5	3
15	Korona Kielce	3	1	0	2	-2	-0.6	3
16	Motor Lublin	3	0	2	1	-2	+0.1	2
17	Rakow	3	0	1	2	-2	+0.8	1
18	Lechia Gdansk	3	0	1	2	-3	-1.9	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Rakow	4	3	1	0	+4	+2.9	10
2	Cracovia	4	3	0	1	+4	-0.6	9
3	Lech Poznan	4	2	1	1	+2	-0.2	7
4	Piast Gliwice	4	2	1	1	+0	+1.4	7
5	Legia	3	1	2	0	+1	-1.7	5
6	Motor Lublin	2	1	1	0	+2	+0.7	4
7	Widzew Lodz	3	1	1	1	+0	-1.4	4
8	GKS Katowice	3	1	1	1	+0	-0.3	4
9	Gornik Zabrze	4	1	1	2	-2	-2.9	4
10	Lechia Gdansk	4	1	1	2	-4	-1.2	4
11	Jagiellonia	2	1	0	1	-1	-0.9	3
12	Radomiak Radom	3	1	0	2	-3	-3.2	3
13	Korona Kielce	4	0	3	1	-3	-4.0	3
14	Slask Wroclaw	2	0	1	1	-2	+1.0	1
15	Pogon Szczecin	3	0	1	2	-3	-2.1	1
16	Zaglebie	3	0	1	2	-3	-0.6	1
17	Puszcza	3	0	1	2	-3	-0.7	1
18	Stal Mielec	3	0	0	3	-4	-1.1	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.