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Ekstraklasa

Referee: M Kochanek

Motor Lublin

T S T T S

1–1

Full-time

Korona Kielce

T S S T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Motor Lublin Korona Kielce

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

50%

33%

Points per game

1,5

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 34%

17%

50%

Both score Ø 17%

33%

Average goals

1,7

2,3

Scored

0,7

0,8

Conceded

1,0

1,5

Goal diff per game

-0,3

-0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Ekstraklasa · 2/2 matches

Win Ø 25%

50%

Points per game

1,5

0,0

Over 2.5 Ø 25%

50%

Both score Ø 0%

Average goals

2,0

Scored

1,0

0,0

Conceded

1,0

2,0

Goal diff per game

+0,0

-2,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

2,85 xG 1,24

47% Possession 53%

16 Shots 13

5 Shots on target 5

3 Blocked shots 3

4 Goalkeeper saves 4

7 Corners 6

6 Offside 0

8 Free kicks against 12

2 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Motor Lublin 12. · Korona Kielce 18. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Jagiellonia	3	3	0	0	+5	-1.0	9
2	Lech Poznan	3	2	0	1	+3	+2.5	6
3	Legia	2	2	0	0	+3	+1.9	6
4	Rakow	3	2	0	1	+2	+2.5	6
5	Pogon Szczecin	3	1	1	1	+2	-0.1	4
6	Piast Gliwice	2	1	1	0	+2	+1.1	4
7	Widzew Lodz	2	1	1	0	+1	-1.0	4
8	Cracovia	2	1	1	0	+1	-2.5	4
9	Gornik Zabrze	3	1	1	1	-1	+0.2	4
10	Zaglebie	3	1	1	1	-1	-1.7	4
11	Radomiak Radom	2	1	0	1	+0	+2.9	3
12	Motor Lublin	2	1	0	1	+0	-0.1	3
13	GKS Katowice	3	1	0	2	-1	-1.4	3
14	Slask Wroclaw	2	0	1	1	-2	+1.3	1
15	Puszcza	3	0	1	2	-3	-0.7	1
16	Stal Mielec	3	0	1	2	-3	+0.4	1
17	Lechia Gdansk	3	0	1	2	-4	-2.4	1
18	Korona Kielce	2	0	0	2	-4	-2.0	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Lech Poznan	2	2	0	0	+4	+1.6	6
2	Jagiellonia	2	2	0	0	+4	+0.9	6
3	Zaglebie	2	1	1	0	+1	+0.2	4
4	Pogon Szczecin	1	1	0	0	+3	+2.0	3
5	Piast Gliwice	1	1	0	0	+2	–	3
6	Legia	1	1	0	0	+2	+1.9	3
7	Widzew Lodz	1	1	0	0	+1	-1.0	3
8	Gornik Zabrze	1	1	0	0	+1	+2.1	3
9	Puszcza	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.3	1
10	Slask Wroclaw	1	0	1	0	+0	+1.3	1
11	Cracovia	1	0	1	0	+0	-1.1	1
12	Stal Mielec	2	0	1	1	-1	+0.4	1
13	Radomiak Radom	1	0	0	1	-1	+1.8	0
14	Rakow	1	0	0	1	-1	+1.4	0
15	Korona Kielce	1	0	0	1	-1	–	0
16	GKS Katowice	2	0	0	2	-2	-1.1	0
17	Lechia Gdansk	1	0	0	1	-2	-1.1	0
18	Motor Lublin	1	0	0	1	-2	-1.2	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Rakow	2	2	0	0	+3	+1.2	6
2	Motor Lublin	1	1	0	0	+2	+1.1	3
3	Jagiellonia	1	1	0	0	+1	-1.8	3
4	Radomiak Radom	1	1	0	0	+1	+1.1	3
5	Cracovia	1	1	0	0	+1	-1.4	3
6	Legia	1	1	0	0	+1	–	3
7	GKS Katowice	1	1	0	0	+1	-0.4	3
8	Piast Gliwice	1	0	1	0	+0	+1.1	1
9	Widzew Lodz	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.0	1
10	Pogon Szczecin	2	0	1	1	-1	-2.1	1
11	Lechia Gdansk	2	0	1	1	-2	-1.3	1
12	Gornik Zabrze	2	0	1	1	-2	-1.9	1
13	Lech Poznan	1	0	0	1	-1	+1.0	0
14	Stal Mielec	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
15	Slask Wroclaw	1	0	0	1	-2	–	0
16	Zaglebie	1	0	0	1	-2	-1.9	0
17	Puszcza	2	0	0	2	-3	-1.1	0
18	Korona Kielce	1	0	0	1	-3	-2.0	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.