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Ekstraklasa

Referee: P Raczkowski

Jagiellonia

S U T S U

3–0

Full-time

Warta Poznan

S T S T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Jagiellonia Warta Poznan

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

33%

50%

Points per game

1,3

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 58%

83%

33%

Both score Ø 58%

83%

33%

Average goals

3,5

2,5

Scored

1,8

1,3

Conceded

1,7

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Ekstraklasa · 33/33 matches

Win Ø 40%

52%

27%

Points per game

1,8

1,1

Over 2.5 Ø 56%

79%

33%

Both score Ø 56%

73%

39%

Average goals

3,6

2,2

Scored

2,2

1,0

Conceded

1,4

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,9

-0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 3–0

56% Possession 44%

14 Shots 14

6 Shots on target 2

3 Blocked shots 5

2 Goalkeeper saves 3

6 Corners 6

0 Offside 1

8 Free kicks against 18

3 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Jagiellonia 1. · Warta Poznan 14. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Jagiellonia	33	17	9	7	+29	+16.3	60
2	Slask Wroclaw	33	17	9	7	+18	+8.0	60
3	Legia	33	15	11	7	+11	+9.8	56
4	Lech Poznan	33	14	11	8	+7	-7.1	53
5	Gornik Zabrze	33	15	8	10	+5	-5.7	53
6	Pogon Szczecin	33	15	7	11	+20	+15.2	52
7	Rakow	33	14	10	9	+16	+21.9	52
8	Zaglebie	33	13	8	12	-6	+2.0	47
9	Piast Gliwice	33	9	16	8	+4	+15.3	43
10	Widzew Lodz	33	12	7	14	-3	-1.8	43
11	Stal Mielec	33	11	10	12	-5	-16.6	43
12	Cracovia	33	8	15	10	+1	-0.7	39
13	Radomiak Radom	33	10	8	15	-15	-4.5	38
14	Warta Poznan	33	9	10	14	-7	-11.0	37
15	Puszcza	33	8	13	12	-11	-15.6	37
16	Korona Kielce	33	7	14	12	-5	+1.1	35
17	Ruch Chorzow	33	5	14	14	-17	-9.1	29
18	LKS Lodz	33	5	6	22	-42	-17.5	21

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Jagiellonia	16	11	3	2	+27	+14.5	36
2	Rakow	16	10	5	1	+23	+15.0	35
3	Gornik Zabrze	17	9	5	3	+9	-1.5	32
4	Lech Poznan	16	9	4	3	+14	+1.0	31
5	Slask Wroclaw	17	9	4	4	+13	+11.6	31
6	Stal Mielec	17	8	6	3	+8	-5.0	30
7	Piast Gliwice	17	7	7	3	+10	+14.3	28
8	Widzew Lodz	17	9	1	7	+0	+5.2	28
9	Legia	16	7	6	3	+8	+8.5	27
10	Pogon Szczecin	16	8	2	6	+9	+15.9	26
11	Korona Kielce	17	6	8	3	+8	+11.3	26
12	Puszcza	16	6	8	2	+2	-0.2	26
13	Zaglebie	17	7	5	5	+1	+1.3	26
14	Cracovia	17	5	7	5	+7	+2.4	22
15	Warta Poznan	17	5	5	7	-1	-2.7	20
16	Radomiak Radom	16	4	5	7	-6	+2.0	17
17	LKS Lodz	16	4	5	7	-11	-8.7	17
18	Ruch Chorzow	16	3	7	6	-3	+2.4	16

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Slask Wroclaw	16	8	5	3	+5	-3.6	29
2	Legia	17	8	5	4	+3	+1.3	29
3	Pogon Szczecin	17	7	5	5	+11	-0.6	26
4	Jagiellonia	17	6	6	5	+2	+1.8	24
5	Lech Poznan	17	5	7	5	-7	-8.1	22
6	Gornik Zabrze	16	6	3	7	-4	-4.3	21
7	Zaglebie	16	6	3	7	-7	+0.8	21
8	Radomiak Radom	17	6	3	8	-9	-6.5	21
9	Warta Poznan	16	4	5	7	-6	-8.3	17
10	Cracovia	16	3	8	5	-6	-3.1	17
11	Rakow	17	4	5	8	-7	+6.8	17
12	Widzew Lodz	16	3	6	7	-3	-7.0	15
13	Piast Gliwice	16	2	9	5	-6	+1.0	15
14	Stal Mielec	16	3	4	9	-13	-11.6	13
15	Ruch Chorzow	17	2	7	8	-14	-11.5	13
16	Puszcza	17	2	5	10	-13	-15.4	11
17	Korona Kielce	16	1	6	9	-13	-10.2	9
18	LKS Lodz	17	1	1	15	-31	-8.8	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.