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Ekstraklasa

Referee: T Musial

Warta Poznan

S T T U T

1–0

Full-time

Korona Kielce

U T U T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Warta Poznan Korona Kielce

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

17%

Points per game

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 25%

17%

33%

Both score Ø 42%

33%

50%

Average goals

1,5

2,3

Scored

0,5

0,8

Conceded

1,0

1,5

Goal diff per game

-0,5

-0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Ekstraklasa · 27/27 matches

Win Ø 21%

22%

19%

Points per game

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 35%

33%

37%

Both score Ø 50%

41%

59%

Average goals

2,1

2,5

Scored

0,9

1,1

Conceded

1,2

1,4

Goal diff per game

-0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

1,16 xG 0,52

39% Possession 61%

12 Shots 7

2 Shots on target 4

3 Blocked shots 1

4 Goalkeeper saves 1

6 Corners 1

3 Offside 1

21 Free kicks against 10

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Warta Poznan 14. · Korona Kielce 15. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Jagiellonia	27	15	7	5	+28	+13.4	52
2	Slask Wroclaw	27	14	8	5	+14	+4.8	50
3	Lech Poznan	27	13	9	5	+9	-2.8	48
4	Rakow	27	12	9	6	+19	+19.6	45
5	Legia	27	12	9	6	+10	+7.8	45
6	Pogon Szczecin	27	13	5	9	+17	+12.6	44
7	Gornik Zabrze	27	12	6	9	+4	-4.6	42
8	Widzew Lodz	27	11	5	11	+0	-3.9	38
9	Stal Mielec	27	10	7	10	-1	-9.9	37
10	Radomiak Radom	27	9	8	10	-8	-0.0	35
11	Zaglebie	27	9	8	10	-9	+3.9	35
12	Cracovia	27	5	14	8	-3	-1.7	29
13	Piast Gliwice	27	5	14	8	-6	+10.4	29
14	Warta Poznan	27	6	10	11	-8	-8.3	28
15	Korona Kielce	27	5	12	10	-7	-1.9	27
16	Puszcza	27	5	11	11	-13	-17.3	26
17	Ruch Chorzow	27	2	14	11	-13	-5.2	20
18	LKS Lodz	27	4	6	17	-33	-16.9	18

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Jagiellonia	13	10	2	1	+26	+14.0	32
2	Rakow	13	9	4	0	+23	+12.6	31
3	Lech Poznan	14	9	3	2	+15	+1.5	30
4	Widzew Lodz	14	9	0	5	+3	+3.7	27
5	Legia	14	7	5	2	+11	+8.6	26
6	Stal Mielec	13	7	4	2	+9	+0.9	25
7	Slask Wroclaw	14	7	4	3	+8	+9.3	25
8	Gornik Zabrze	13	7	3	3	+4	-2.5	24
9	Pogon Szczecin	13	6	2	5	+5	+13.7	20
10	Zaglebie	14	5	5	4	-1	+1.6	20
11	Korona Kielce	14	4	7	3	+2	+6.2	19
12	Puszcza	13	4	7	2	+0	-4.5	19
13	Piast Gliwice	13	4	6	3	+2	+8.7	18
14	Radomiak Radom	14	4	5	5	-3	+2.1	17
15	Cracovia	14	3	7	4	+1	+0.4	16
16	LKS Lodz	13	3	5	5	-10	-11.1	14
17	Ruch Chorzow	14	2	7	5	-3	+2.9	13
18	Warta Poznan	13	2	5	6	-5	-3.4	11

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Slask Wroclaw	13	7	4	2	+6	-4.5	25
2	Pogon Szczecin	14	7	3	4	+12	-1.1	24
3	Jagiellonia	14	5	5	4	+2	-0.6	20
4	Legia	13	5	4	4	-1	-0.8	19
5	Gornik Zabrze	14	5	3	6	+0	-2.1	18
6	Radomiak Radom	13	5	3	5	-5	-2.1	18
7	Lech Poznan	13	4	6	3	-6	-4.3	18
8	Warta Poznan	14	4	5	5	-3	-4.9	17
9	Zaglebie	13	4	3	6	-8	+2.3	15
10	Rakow	14	3	5	6	-4	+7.0	14
11	Cracovia	13	2	7	4	-4	-2.1	13
12	Stal Mielec	14	3	3	8	-10	-10.8	12
13	Widzew Lodz	13	2	5	6	-3	-7.6	11
14	Piast Gliwice	14	1	8	5	-8	+1.7	11
15	Korona Kielce	13	1	5	7	-9	-8.1	8
16	Ruch Chorzow	13	0	7	6	-10	-8.1	7
17	Puszcza	14	1	4	9	-13	-12.8	7
18	LKS Lodz	14	1	1	12	-23	-5.9	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.