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Allsvenskan

Referee: Adi Aganovic

Varnamo

U T S T T

2–2

Full-time

GAIS

S U S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Varnamo GAIS

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

17%

83%

Points per game

0,7

2,7

Over 2.5 Ø 58%

33%

83%

Both score Ø 33%

33%

Average goals

2,2

3,0

Scored

0,7

2,5

Conceded

1,5

0,5

Goal diff per game

-0,8

+2,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Allsvenskan · 17/17 matches

Win Ø 27%

47%

Points per game

0,4

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 44%

47%

41%

Both score Ø 56%

59%

53%

Average goals

2,7

2,4

Scored

0,9

1,6

Conceded

1,8

0,8

Goal diff per game

-0,9

+0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

1,05 xG 1,94

42% Possession 58%

10 Shots 29

3 Shots on target 9

4 Blocked shots 9

7 Goalkeeper saves 1

6 Corners 6

0 Offside 2

9 Free kicks against 8

1 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Varnamo 16. · GAIS 6. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Mjallby	18	13	4	1	+21	+3.6	43
2	Hammarby	18	12	3	3	+18	+12.5	39
3	Malmo FF	18	9	6	3	+14	+10.5	33
4	AIK	18	9	6	3	+8	+3.5	33
5	Elfsborg	17	10	2	5	+9	+2.4	32
6	GAIS	17	8	7	2	+14	+7.2	31
7	Djurgarden	17	7	4	6	+3	+4.4	25
8	Goteborg	17	8	1	8	-2	+1.7	25
9	Brommapojkarna	18	7	1	10	+0	-0.5	22
10	Hacken	17	6	4	7	-6	+0.8	22
11	Norrkoping	18	5	4	9	-6	-10.3	19
12	Halmstad	17	5	2	10	-20	-10.8	17
13	Degerfors	17	4	2	11	-18	-1.3	14
14	Sirius	17	3	4	10	-8	-5.7	13
15	Oster	17	3	4	10	-11	-9.3	13
16	Varnamo	17	1	4	12	-16	-8.6	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Hammarby	10	8	1	1	+13	+10.8	25
2	Mjallby	9	7	2	0	+12	+4.9	23
3	Elfsborg	9	6	1	2	+7	+0.3	19
4	AIK	8	5	3	0	+10	+3.5	18
5	Malmo FF	8	5	2	1	+10	+7.4	17
6	GAIS	8	4	3	1	+6	+4.8	15
7	Djurgarden	9	3	4	2	+3	+4.3	13
8	Halmstad	9	4	1	4	-6	-2.5	13
9	Hacken	9	3	2	4	-4	+3.3	11
10	Goteborg	8	3	1	4	+0	+1.4	10
11	Norrkoping	9	3	1	5	-2	-1.4	10
12	Brommapojkarna	9	3	0	6	-3	+0.2	9
13	Sirius	8	2	1	5	-3	-0.6	7
14	Varnamo	9	1	3	5	-5	-4.4	6
15	Oster	8	1	2	5	-6	-4.6	5
16	Degerfors	9	1	2	6	-12	+0.2	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Mjallby	9	6	2	1	+9	-1.3	20
2	GAIS	9	4	4	1	+8	+2.4	16
3	Malmo FF	10	4	4	2	+4	+3.1	16
4	Goteborg	9	5	0	4	-2	+0.4	15
5	AIK	10	4	3	3	-2	-0.1	15
6	Hammarby	8	4	2	2	+5	+1.7	14
7	Brommapojkarna	9	4	1	4	+3	-0.7	13
8	Elfsborg	8	4	1	3	+2	+2.2	13
9	Djurgarden	8	4	0	4	+0	+0.0	12
10	Hacken	8	3	2	3	-2	-2.5	11
11	Norrkoping	9	2	3	4	-4	-8.9	9
12	Degerfors	8	3	0	5	-6	-1.5	9
13	Oster	9	2	2	5	-5	-4.7	8
14	Sirius	9	1	3	5	-5	-5.1	6
15	Halmstad	8	1	1	6	-14	-8.3	4
16	Varnamo	8	0	1	7	-11	-4.3	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.