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Allsvenskan

Referee: Granit Maqedonci

Norrkoping

U T U T T

3–1

Full-time

Varnamo

U T U T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Norrkoping Varnamo

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

17%

Points per game

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 25%

50%

Both score Ø 42%

67%

17%

Average goals

2,5

1,3

Scored

0,8

0,3

Conceded

1,7

1,0

Goal diff per game

-0,8

-0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Allsvenskan · 15/15 matches

Win Ø 17%

27%

Points per game

1,0

0,5

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

60%

40%

Both score Ø 60%

67%

53%

Average goals

3,3

2,5

Scored

1,5

0,8

Conceded

1,9

1,7

Goal diff per game

-0,4

-0,9

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

2,48 xG 1,96

51% Possession 49%

18 Shots 15

6 Shots on target 4

5 Blocked shots 2

2 Goalkeeper saves 3

4 Corners 7

2 Offside 1

13 Free kicks against 13

2 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Norrkoping 12. · Varnamo 16. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Mjallby	17	12	4	1	+20	+2.6	40
2	Hammarby	17	11	3	3	+17	+11.6	36
3	AIK	17	9	5	3	+8	+3.2	32
4	Malmo FF	17	8	6	3	+13	+10.1	30
5	Elfsborg	16	9	2	5	+8	+3.4	29
6	GAIS	16	7	7	2	+11	+6.0	28
7	Goteborg	16	8	1	7	-1	+0.8	25
8	Hacken	16	6	4	6	-1	+2.4	22
9	Djurgarden	16	6	4	6	-2	+2.7	22
10	Brommapojkarna	16	6	1	9	-1	+0.5	19
11	Halmstad	16	5	2	9	-17	-9.6	17
12	Norrkoping	15	4	3	8	-6	-9.7	15
13	Sirius	16	3	4	9	-7	-4.7	13
14	Degerfors	16	4	1	11	-18	-2.9	13
15	Oster	16	3	3	10	-11	-9.1	12
16	Varnamo	15	1	4	10	-13	-7.2	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Hammarby	10	8	1	1	+13	+10.8	25
2	Mjallby	8	6	2	0	+11	+3.8	20
3	Malmo FF	8	5	2	1	+10	+7.4	17
4	AIK	7	5	2	0	+10	+3.3	17
5	Elfsborg	8	5	1	2	+6	+1.2	16
6	Djurgarden	9	3	4	2	+3	+4.3	13
7	Halmstad	9	4	1	4	-6	-2.5	13
8	GAIS	7	3	3	1	+3	+3.6	12
9	Hacken	8	3	2	3	+1	+4.9	11
10	Goteborg	8	3	1	4	+0	+1.4	10
11	Sirius	8	2	1	5	-3	-0.6	7
12	Norrkoping	8	2	1	5	-4	-1.9	7
13	Varnamo	8	1	3	4	-4	-3.5	6
14	Brommapojkarna	7	2	0	5	-4	+1.1	6
15	Oster	8	1	2	5	-6	-4.6	5
16	Degerfors	8	1	1	6	-12	-1.4	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Mjallby	9	6	2	1	+9	-1.3	20
2	GAIS	9	4	4	1	+8	+2.4	16
3	Goteborg	8	5	0	3	-1	-0.6	15
4	AIK	10	4	3	3	-2	-0.1	15
5	Brommapojkarna	9	4	1	4	+3	-0.7	13
6	Malmo FF	9	3	4	2	+3	+2.6	13
7	Elfsborg	8	4	1	3	+2	+2.2	13
8	Hammarby	7	3	2	2	+4	+0.8	11
9	Hacken	8	3	2	3	-2	-2.5	11
10	Djurgarden	7	3	0	4	-5	-1.6	9
11	Degerfors	8	3	0	5	-6	-1.5	9
12	Norrkoping	7	2	2	3	-2	-7.7	8
13	Oster	8	2	1	5	-5	-4.5	7
14	Sirius	8	1	3	4	-4	-4.1	6
15	Halmstad	7	1	1	5	-11	-7.1	4
16	Varnamo	7	0	1	6	-9	-3.7	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.