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Allsvenskan

Referee: Fredrik Klitte

Hammarby

U T S S S

1–0

Full-time

Varnamo

U T U T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Hammarby Varnamo

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

67%

Points per game

2,2

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 25%

33%

17%

Both score Ø 42%

33%

50%

Average goals

2,2

2,0

Scored

1,5

0,7

Conceded

0,7

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,8

-0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Allsvenskan · 14/13 matches

Win Ø 32%

64%

Points per game

2,1

0,3

Over 2.5 Ø 41%

36%

46%

Both score Ø 49%

36%

62%

Average goals

2,4

2,7

Scored

1,8

0,8

Conceded

0,6

1,8

Goal diff per game

+1,1

-1,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

1,62 xG 0,80

73% Possession 27%

21 Shots 10

5 Shots on target 0

7 Blocked shots 2

0 Goalkeeper saves 4

9 Corners 3

1 Offside 0

8 Free kicks against 15

3 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Hammarby 2. · Varnamo 16. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Mjallby	15	10	4	1	+17	+2.9	34
2	Hammarby	14	9	3	2	+16	+10.5	30
3	AIK	14	8	5	1	+9	+1.9	29
4	Elfsborg	13	8	2	3	+10	+5.8	26
5	Malmo FF	15	6	6	3	+9	+9.3	24
6	GAIS	14	5	7	2	+7	+5.2	22
7	Goteborg	13	6	1	6	-3	+0.2	19
8	Djurgarden	13	4	4	5	-6	-1.7	16
9	Norrkoping	13	4	3	6	-3	-8.0	15
10	Hacken	13	4	3	6	-6	-0.2	15
11	Sirius	13	3	4	6	-3	-5.4	13
12	Brommapojkarna	13	4	1	8	-3	+0.2	13
13	Degerfors	13	4	1	8	-8	+0.7	13
14	Halmstad	13	4	1	8	-16	-7.5	13
15	Oster	14	3	3	8	-7	-8.6	12
16	Varnamo	13	0	4	9	-13	-5.3	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Hammarby	8	6	1	1	+11	+8.9	19
2	Mjallby	7	5	2	0	+9	+3.4	17
3	Elfsborg	7	5	1	1	+8	+2.1	16
4	Malmo FF	7	4	2	1	+8	+6.3	14
5	AIK	6	4	2	0	+7	+1.9	14
6	GAIS	6	2	3	1	+2	+2.8	9
7	Halmstad	7	3	0	4	-8	-2.0	9
8	Hacken	7	2	2	3	-2	+3.3	8
9	Sirius	6	2	1	3	-1	-0.9	7
10	Goteborg	6	2	1	3	-1	+1.2	7
11	Djurgarden	7	1	4	2	-2	+1.0	7
12	Norrkoping	7	2	1	4	-3	-1.4	7
13	Oster	7	1	2	4	-4	-5.0	5
14	Degerfors	7	1	1	5	-9	-1.4	4
15	Varnamo	7	0	3	4	-5	-2.3	3
16	Brommapojkarna	6	1	0	5	-6	+0.3	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Mjallby	8	5	2	1	+8	-0.5	17
2	AIK	8	4	3	1	+2	+0.0	15
3	GAIS	8	3	4	1	+5	+2.4	13
4	Goteborg	7	4	0	3	-2	-1.0	12
5	Hammarby	6	3	2	1	+5	+1.5	11
6	Brommapojkarna	7	3	1	3	+3	-0.1	10
7	Elfsborg	6	3	1	2	+2	+3.7	10
8	Malmo FF	8	2	4	2	+1	+3.0	10
9	Degerfors	6	3	0	3	+1	+2.1	9
10	Djurgarden	6	3	0	3	-4	-2.7	9
11	Norrkoping	6	2	2	2	+0	-6.6	8
12	Oster	7	2	1	4	-3	-3.6	7
13	Hacken	6	2	1	3	-4	-3.5	7
14	Sirius	7	1	3	3	-2	-4.5	6
15	Halmstad	6	1	1	4	-8	-5.5	4
16	Varnamo	6	0	1	5	-8	-2.9	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.