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Allsvenskan

Referee: Oscar Johnson

Varnamo

T U T U T

1–0

Full-time

Djurgarden

U S T U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Varnamo Djurgarden

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

33%

Points per game

0,5

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 25%

17%

33%

Both score Ø 42%

33%

50%

Average goals

1,8

2,7

Scored

0,5

1,3

Conceded

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,8

+0,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Allsvenskan · 14/14 matches

Win Ø 18%

36%

Points per game

0,3

1,4

Over 2.5 Ø 36%

43%

29%

Both score Ø 50%

57%

43%

Average goals

2,6

2,1

Scored

0,8

1,0

Conceded

1,8

1,1

Goal diff per game

-1,0

-0,1

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

0,47 xG 1,60

40% Possession 60%

10 Shots 21

4 Shots on target 5

3 Blocked shots 7

6 Goalkeeper saves 2

8 Corners 8

3 Offside 1

17 Free kicks against 14

4 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Varnamo 16. · Djurgarden 9. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Mjallby	15	10	4	1	+17	+2.9	34
2	Hammarby	16	10	3	3	+16	+10.5	33
3	Elfsborg	15	9	2	4	+9	+4.4	29
4	AIK	15	8	5	2	+7	+2.3	29
5	Malmo FF	16	7	6	3	+11	+10.4	27
6	GAIS	15	6	7	2	+8	+6.0	25
7	Goteborg	15	7	1	7	-2	+0.3	22
8	Brommapojkarna	15	6	1	8	+0	+1.5	19
9	Djurgarden	14	5	4	5	-2	+0.6	19
10	Hacken	14	5	3	6	-4	+0.6	18
11	Halmstad	14	5	1	8	-14	-7.8	16
12	Norrkoping	15	4	3	8	-6	-9.7	15
13	Sirius	14	3	4	7	-5	-5.0	13
14	Degerfors	14	4	1	9	-12	-1.6	13
15	Oster	15	3	3	9	-9	-9.4	12
16	Varnamo	14	0	4	10	-14	-6.1	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Hammarby	9	7	1	1	+12	+9.7	22
2	Malmo FF	8	5	2	1	+10	+7.4	17
3	Mjallby	7	5	2	0	+9	+3.4	17
4	Elfsborg	8	5	1	2	+6	+1.2	16
5	AIK	6	4	2	0	+7	+1.9	14
6	GAIS	7	3	3	1	+3	+3.6	12
7	Halmstad	8	4	0	4	-6	-2.3	12
8	Djurgarden	8	2	4	2	+2	+3.3	10
9	Goteborg	8	3	1	4	+0	+1.4	10
10	Hacken	7	2	2	3	-2	+3.3	8
11	Sirius	6	2	1	3	-1	-0.9	7
12	Norrkoping	8	2	1	5	-4	-1.9	7
13	Brommapojkarna	7	2	0	5	-4	+1.1	6
14	Oster	7	1	2	4	-4	-5.0	5
15	Degerfors	7	1	1	5	-9	-1.4	4
16	Varnamo	7	0	3	4	-5	-2.3	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Mjallby	8	5	2	1	+8	-0.5	17
2	AIK	9	4	3	2	+0	+0.3	15
3	GAIS	8	3	4	1	+5	+2.4	13
4	Brommapojkarna	8	4	1	3	+4	+0.4	13
5	Elfsborg	7	4	1	2	+3	+3.2	13
6	Goteborg	7	4	0	3	-2	-1.0	12
7	Hammarby	7	3	2	2	+4	+0.8	11
8	Malmo FF	8	2	4	2	+1	+3.0	10
9	Hacken	7	3	1	3	-2	-2.7	10
10	Degerfors	7	3	0	4	-3	-0.2	9
11	Djurgarden	6	3	0	3	-4	-2.7	9
12	Norrkoping	7	2	2	3	-2	-7.7	8
13	Oster	8	2	1	5	-5	-4.5	7
14	Sirius	8	1	3	4	-4	-4.1	6
15	Halmstad	6	1	1	4	-8	-5.5	4
16	Varnamo	7	0	1	6	-9	-3.7	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.