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Championship

Referee: A Woolmer

Cardiff

T T S S U

2–1

Full-time

Stoke

T T U U U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Cardiff Stoke

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

33%

Points per game

1,3

0,5

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

33%

67%

Both score Ø 67%

50%

83%

Average goals

1,7

2,8

Scored

0,8

1,2

Conceded

0,8

1,7

Goal diff per game

+0,0

-0,5

This season — Championship · 39/38 matches

Win Ø 34%

33%

34%

Points per game

1,2

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 52%

56%

47%

Both score Ø 52%

51%

53%

Average goals

2,7

2,4

Scored

1,3

Conceded

1,5

1,2

Goal diff per game

-0,2

+0,1

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–1

39% Possession 61%

12 Shots 7

6 Shots on target 4

1 Blocked shots 2

3 Goalkeeper saves 4

9 Corners 8

3 Offside 3

11 Free kicks against 10

1 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Cardiff 18. · Stoke 15. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Fulham	39	25	8	6	+60	83
2	Bournemouth	37	19	11	7	+25	68
3	Huddersfield	37	18	12	7	+18	66
4	Blackburn	39	18	10	11	+15	64
5	Middlesbrough	38	18	8	12	+10	62
6	Sheffield United	36	18	7	11	+16	61
7	Coventry	38	17	9	12	+11	60
8	Luton	36	17	8	11	+11	59
9	West Brom	39	16	11	12	+10	59
10	QPR	37	17	8	12	+9	59
11	Preston	39	14	15	10	+2	57
12	Blackpool	37	15	9	13	+3	54
13	Millwall	37	14	12	11	+2	54
14	Nott'm Forest	33	15	8	10	+16	53
15	Stoke	38	13	11	14	+5	50
16	Swansea	37	14	8	15	-8	50
17	Derby	40	12	12	16	-7	48
18	Cardiff	39	13	8	18	-8	47
19	Bristol City	39	13	7	19	-19	46
20	Birmingham	40	10	12	18	-19	42
21	Hull	39	11	8	20	-9	41
22	Reading	39	11	7	21	-28	40
23	Barnsley	38	6	11	21	-24	29
24	Peterborough	36	5	8	23	-45	23
25	Peterboro	37	5	8	24	-46	23

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Fulham	20	13	4	3	+30	43
2	Blackburn	21	13	4	4	+18	43
3	Middlesbrough	19	13	2	4	+15	41
4	Huddersfield	18	11	5	2	+15	38
5	Coventry	20	11	4	5	+15	37
6	West Brom	19	10	7	2	+15	37
7	Bournemouth	19	10	6	3	+17	36
8	Derby	19	10	6	3	+10	36
9	Blackpool	20	11	2	7	+5	35
10	Luton	18	10	4	4	+12	34
11	Sheffield United	17	10	3	4	+20	33
12	QPR	19	9	6	4	+10	33
13	Millwall	18	9	6	3	+8	33
14	Swansea	18	9	4	5	+6	31
15	Nott'm Forest	18	9	3	6	+9	30
16	Preston	19	7	9	3	+4	30
17	Stoke	19	8	4	7	+6	28
18	Bristol City	19	7	5	7	-1	26
19	Cardiff	20	7	3	10	+1	24
20	Birmingham	20	6	6	8	-4	24
21	Reading	19	6	4	9	-9	22
22	Barnsley	19	5	6	8	-5	21
23	Peterborough	17	4	6	7	-6	18
24	Peterboro	18	4	6	8	-7	18
25	Hull	19	5	3	11	-8	18

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Fulham	19	12	4	3	+30	40
2	Bournemouth	18	9	5	4	+8	32
3	Huddersfield	19	7	7	5	+3	28
4	Sheffield United	19	8	4	7	-4	28
5	Preston	20	7	6	7	-2	27
6	QPR	18	8	2	8	-1	26
7	Luton	18	7	4	7	-1	25
8	Nott'm Forest	15	6	5	4	+7	23
9	Hull	20	6	5	9	-1	23
10	Coventry	18	6	5	7	-4	23
11	Cardiff	19	6	5	8	-9	23
12	Stoke	19	5	7	7	-1	22
13	West Brom	20	6	4	10	-5	22
14	Blackburn	18	5	6	7	-3	21
15	Middlesbrough	19	5	6	8	-5	21
16	Millwall	19	5	6	8	-6	21
17	Bristol City	20	6	2	12	-18	20
18	Blackpool	17	4	7	6	-2	19
19	Swansea	19	5	4	10	-14	19
20	Birmingham	20	4	6	10	-15	18
21	Reading	20	5	3	12	-19	18
22	Derby	21	2	6	13	-17	12
23	Barnsley	19	1	5	13	-19	8
24	Peterboro	19	1	2	16	-39	5
25	Peterborough	19	1	2	16	-39	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.