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La Liga

Referee: Valentín Pizarro

Almeria

T U U S T

1–2

Full-time

Ath Bilbao

S U U S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Almeria Ath Bilbao

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

17%

50%

Points per game

0,8

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

67%

33%

Both score Ø 67%

83%

50%

Average goals

2,8

2,0

Scored

1,2

1,3

Conceded

1,7

0,7

Goal diff per game

-0,5

+0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — La Liga · 29/29 matches

Win Ø 35%

28%

41%

Points per game

1,0

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 52%

55%

48%

Both score Ø 52%

66%

38%

Average goals

2,9

2,4

Scored

1,2

1,4

Conceded

1,7

1,0

Goal diff per game

-0,5

+0,4

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

0,81 xG 1,67

53% Possession 47%

12 Shots 14

4 Shots on target 3

3 Blocked shots 2

1 Goalkeeper saves 3

3 Corners 4

2 Offside 1

8 Free kicks against 20

2 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Almeria 17. · Ath Bilbao 7. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	29	23	4	2	+44	+9.7	73
2	Real Madrid	29	19	5	5	+37	+17.2	62
3	Ath Madrid	29	18	6	5	+26	+12.0	60
4	Sociedad	29	15	6	8	+9	+3.2	51
5	Betis	30	14	6	10	+6	+3.3	48
6	Villarreal	29	14	5	10	+10	+3.9	47
7	Ath Bilbao	29	12	7	10	+11	+2.3	43
8	Osasuna	30	11	8	11	-4	-8.7	41
9	Vallecano	29	10	10	9	+1	-2.5	40
10	Girona	29	10	8	11	+2	-2.8	38
11	Mallorca	29	10	7	12	-4	-2.7	37
12	Celta	29	9	9	11	-4	+2.4	36
13	Sevilla	29	9	8	12	-9	+3.1	35
14	Cadiz	30	7	11	12	-19	-4.1	32
15	Valladolid	29	9	5	15	-23	-12.1	32
16	Getafe	29	7	10	12	-9	-2.9	31
17	Almeria	29	8	6	15	-15	-5.9	30
18	Espanol	30	6	10	14	-14	-4.3	28
19	Valencia	29	7	6	16	-6	-2.6	27
20	Elche	29	2	7	20	-39	-8.5	13

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	14	11	3	0	+25	+5.9	36
2	Real Madrid	14	9	4	1	+22	+13.1	31
3	Ath Madrid	15	9	3	3	+16	+9.0	30
4	Girona	15	8	3	4	+8	+1.9	27
5	Betis	15	8	3	4	+7	+1.2	27
6	Villarreal	14	8	2	4	+8	+4.9	26
7	Almeria	15	8	2	5	+4	+0.5	26
8	Sociedad	14	7	4	3	+5	+4.8	25
9	Osasuna	15	8	1	6	+0	-3.5	25
10	Ath Bilbao	15	7	3	5	+9	+0.3	24
11	Vallecano	15	6	5	4	+4	-0.9	23
12	Mallorca	14	6	4	4	+3	+1.1	22
13	Valencia	15	6	3	6	+6	+3.5	21
14	Valladolid	14	6	3	5	-1	-0.7	21
15	Celta	15	5	5	5	+4	+3.2	20
16	Getafe	15	5	5	5	+0	-1.5	20
17	Sevilla	14	5	4	5	+0	+9.0	19
18	Cadiz	15	4	6	5	-7	-1.7	18
19	Espanol	15	3	5	7	-7	+0.5	14
20	Elche	14	1	4	9	-14	+0.4	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	15	12	1	2	+19	+3.8	37
2	Real Madrid	15	10	1	4	+15	+4.0	31
3	Ath Madrid	14	9	3	2	+10	+2.9	30
4	Sociedad	15	8	2	5	+4	-1.6	26
5	Villarreal	15	6	3	6	+2	-1.1	21
6	Betis	15	6	3	6	-1	+2.1	21
7	Ath Bilbao	14	5	4	5	+2	+2.0	19
8	Vallecano	14	4	5	5	-3	-1.6	17
9	Osasuna	15	3	7	5	-4	-5.2	16
10	Celta	14	4	4	6	-8	-0.8	16
11	Sevilla	15	4	4	7	-9	-5.9	16
12	Mallorca	15	4	3	8	-7	-3.9	15
13	Espanol	15	3	5	7	-7	-4.8	14
14	Cadiz	15	3	5	7	-12	-2.4	14
15	Girona	14	2	5	7	-6	-4.7	11
16	Getafe	14	2	5	7	-9	-1.4	11
17	Valladolid	15	3	2	10	-22	-11.3	11
18	Valencia	14	1	3	10	-12	-6.1	6
19	Elche	15	1	3	11	-25	-8.9	6
20	Almeria	14	0	4	10	-19	-6.4	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.