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Championship

Referee: T Harrington

Stoke

S T U S S

1–2

Full-time

Cardiff

U T S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Stoke Cardiff

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

67%

50%

Points per game

2,2

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

50%

33%

Both score Ø 25%

33%

17%

Average goals

2,8

2,0

Scored

1,8

1,5

Conceded

1,0

0,5

Goal diff per game

+0,8

+1,0

This season — Championship · 16/16 matches

Win Ø 44%

50%

38%

Points per game

1,8

1,4

Over 2.5 Ø 35%

38%

31%

Both score Ø 38%

38%

Average goals

2,6

2,1

Scored

1,4

1,3

Conceded

1,1

0,8

Goal diff per game

+0,3

+0,5

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

50% Possession 50%

5 Shots 4

1 Shots on target 2

1 Blocked shots 1

0 Goalkeeper saves 1

3 Corners 4

0 Offside 1

13 Free kicks against 11

2 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Stoke 5. · Cardiff 11. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Norwich	16	9	4	3	+6	31
2	Bournemouth	16	8	6	2	+13	30
3	Reading	16	9	3	4	+7	30
4	Swansea	15	8	4	3	+9	28
5	Stoke	16	8	4	4	+5	28
6	Watford	16	7	6	3	+7	27
7	Bristol City	16	8	3	5	+3	27
8	Brentford	15	7	5	3	+9	26
9	Blackburn	16	7	4	5	+12	25
10	Middlesbrough	16	6	6	4	+5	24
11	Cardiff	16	6	5	5	+8	23
12	Luton	16	6	4	6	-6	22
13	Huddersfield	16	6	3	7	-2	21
14	Millwall	16	4	8	4	+0	20
15	Preston	16	6	2	8	-3	20
16	Birmingham	16	4	7	5	-2	19
17	Barnsley	16	5	4	7	-4	19
18	QPR	16	4	5	7	-7	17
19	Coventry	16	4	5	7	-8	17
20	Sheffield Weds	16	3	6	7	-6	15
21	Rotherham	16	3	4	9	-8	13
22	Nott'm Forest	16	3	4	9	-10	13
23	Wycombe	16	2	5	9	-14	11
24	Derby	16	2	5	9	-14	11

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Watford	8	6	1	1	+8	19
2	Reading	8	6	0	2	+5	18
3	Middlesbrough	8	5	2	1	+7	17
4	Swansea	8	5	2	1	+7	17
5	Bournemouth	8	5	2	1	+6	17
6	Norwich	8	4	3	1	+3	15
7	Blackburn	8	4	2	2	+6	14
8	Stoke	8	4	2	2	+1	14
9	Coventry	8	4	2	2	-1	14
10	Huddersfield	8	4	1	3	+2	13
11	Brentford	7	3	3	1	+4	12
12	QPR	8	3	3	2	+1	12
13	Luton	8	3	3	2	+0	12
14	Cardiff	8	3	2	3	+6	11
15	Barnsley	8	3	2	3	+0	11
16	Bristol City	8	3	2	3	+0	11
17	Nott'm Forest	8	2	3	3	-1	9
18	Rotherham	8	2	2	4	-1	8
19	Sheffield Weds	8	1	5	2	-1	8
20	Millwall	8	1	5	2	-2	8
21	Birmingham	8	2	2	4	-3	8
22	Wycombe	8	1	3	4	-4	6
23	Preston	8	1	1	6	-8	4
24	Derby	8	0	3	5	-10	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Preston	8	5	1	2	+5	16
2	Norwich	8	5	1	2	+3	16
3	Bristol City	8	5	1	2	+3	16
4	Brentford	8	4	2	2	+5	14
5	Stoke	8	4	2	2	+4	14
6	Bournemouth	8	3	4	1	+7	13
7	Reading	8	3	3	2	+2	12
8	Cardiff	8	3	3	2	+2	12
9	Millwall	8	3	3	2	+2	12
10	Blackburn	8	3	2	3	+6	11
11	Swansea	7	3	2	2	+2	11
12	Birmingham	8	2	5	1	+1	11
13	Luton	8	3	1	4	-6	10
14	Watford	8	1	5	2	-1	8
15	Huddersfield	8	2	2	4	-4	8
16	Barnsley	8	2	2	4	-4	8
17	Derby	8	2	2	4	-4	8
18	Middlesbrough	8	1	4	3	-2	7
19	Sheffield Weds	8	2	1	5	-5	7
20	Rotherham	8	1	2	5	-7	5
21	QPR	8	1	2	5	-8	5
22	Wycombe	8	1	2	5	-10	5
23	Nott'm Forest	8	1	1	6	-9	4
24	Coventry	8	0	3	5	-7	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.