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Championship

Referee: J Gillett

Watford

U T T U S

1–3

Full-time

Cardiff

U T S T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Watford Cardiff

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

33%

17%

Points per game

1,3

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

3,0

3,2

Scored

1,7

1,2

Conceded

1,3

2,0

Goal diff per game

+0,3

-0,8

This season — Championship · 42/41 matches

Win Ø 32%

36%

27%

Points per game

1,4

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 34%

38%

29%

Both score Ø 40%

43%

37%

Average goals

2,3

2,0

Scored

1,2

0,8

Conceded

1,1

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,1

-0,4

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–3

73% Possession 27%

14 Shots 9

3 Shots on target 5

7 Blocked shots 2

2 Goalkeeper saves 2

10 Corners 1

2 Offside 1

11 Free kicks against 11

3 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Watford 11. · Cardiff 22. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Burnley	42	26	14	2	+48	92
2	Sheffield United	42	25	7	10	+29	82
3	Middlesbrough	41	21	8	12	+29	71
4	Luton	39	20	11	8	+17	71
5	Millwall	43	18	11	14	+8	65
6	West Brom	42	17	12	13	+9	63
7	Blackburn	41	19	6	16	-2	63
8	Preston	42	17	11	14	-6	62
9	Norwich	42	17	10	15	+8	61
10	Sunderland	41	16	12	13	+9	60
11	Watford	42	15	14	13	+4	59
12	Coventry	40	15	13	12	+8	58
13	Swansea	42	15	11	16	-2	56
14	Bristol City	43	13	14	16	-3	53
15	Birmingham	43	14	11	18	-7	53
16	Hull	42	13	14	15	-9	53
17	Stoke	43	14	10	19	+4	52
18	Reading	42	13	9	20	-19	48
19	Rotherham	42	10	16	16	-10	46
20	Huddersfield	43	11	11	21	-19	44
21	QPR	42	11	10	21	-27	43
22	Cardiff	41	11	9	21	-16	42
23	Wigan	43	9	13	21	-28	40
24	Blackpool	43	9	11	23	-25	38

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Burnley	21	15	6	0	+32	51
2	Sheffield United	21	14	3	4	+23	45
3	Middlesbrough	21	12	6	3	+25	42
4	Blackburn	20	13	2	5	+9	41
5	Millwall	22	11	6	5	+13	39
6	West Brom	21	10	7	4	+11	37
7	Watford	21	10	6	5	+12	36
8	Reading	21	10	6	5	+7	36
9	Luton	20	9	7	4	+9	34
10	Bristol City	21	8	7	6	+6	31
11	Swansea	21	9	4	8	+3	31
12	Rotherham	21	8	6	7	+7	30
13	Coventry	19	8	6	5	+2	30
14	Norwich	21	8	5	8	+4	29
15	Hull	21	8	5	8	-4	29
16	Sunderland	21	7	7	7	+0	28
17	Birmingham	21	7	6	8	+2	27
18	Huddersfield	21	7	6	8	-2	27
19	Preston	21	7	6	8	-5	27
20	Cardiff	21	6	6	9	-3	24
21	Blackpool	22	6	6	10	-5	24
22	Stoke	22	6	5	11	-1	23
23	QPR	21	6	4	11	-12	22
24	Wigan	21	4	6	11	-19	18

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Burnley	21	11	8	2	+16	41
2	Luton	19	11	4	4	+8	37
3	Sheffield United	21	11	4	6	+6	37
4	Preston	21	10	5	6	-1	35
5	Sunderland	20	9	5	6	+9	32
6	Norwich	21	9	5	7	+4	32
7	Stoke	21	8	5	8	+5	29
8	Middlesbrough	20	9	2	9	+4	29
9	Coventry	21	7	7	7	+6	28
10	West Brom	21	7	5	9	-2	26
11	Millwall	21	7	5	9	-5	26
12	Birmingham	22	7	5	10	-9	26
13	Swansea	21	6	7	8	-5	25
14	Hull	21	5	9	7	-5	24
15	Watford	21	5	8	8	-8	23
16	Bristol City	22	5	7	10	-9	22
17	Wigan	22	5	7	10	-9	22
18	Blackburn	21	6	4	11	-11	22
19	QPR	21	5	6	10	-15	21
20	Cardiff	20	5	3	12	-13	18
21	Huddersfield	22	4	5	13	-17	17
22	Rotherham	21	2	10	9	-17	16
23	Blackpool	21	3	5	13	-20	14
24	Reading	21	3	3	15	-26	12

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.