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Bundesliga
Referee: M Jöllenbeck
Leverkusen
T S U T S
2–1
Full-time
Hertha
T T T T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Leverkusen Hertha
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 34%
50%
17%
Points per game
1,7
0,5
Over 2.5 Ø 67%
50%
83%
Both score Ø 50%
50%
50%
Average goals
3,2
3,8
Scored
2,0
1,0
Conceded
1,2
2,8
Goal diff per game
+0,8
-1,8
This season — Bundesliga · 27/27 matches
Win Ø 39%
52%
26%
Points per game
1,8
1,0
Over 2.5 Ø 69%
70%
67%
Both score Ø 65%
70%
59%
Average goals
4,0
3,3
Scored
2,4
1,1
Conceded
1,5
2,2
Goal diff per game
+0,9
-1,1
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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–1

70% Possession 30%
19 Shots 7
6 Shots on target 4
5 Blocked shots 2
3 Goalkeeper saves 4
3 Corners 3
2 Offside 0
13 Free kicks against 11
0 Yellow cards 1
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Leverkusen 3. · Hertha 16.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Bayern Munich 27 20 3 4 +53 63
2 Dortmund 27 18 3 6 +29 57
3 Leverkusen 27 14 6 7 +25 48
4 RB Leipzig 27 13 6 8 +27 45
5 Freiburg 27 12 9 6 +14 45
6 Hoffenheim 27 13 5 9 +9 44
7 Union Berlin 28 11 8 9 -4 41
8 FC Koln 28 10 10 8 -3 40
9 Ein Frankfurt 27 10 8 9 +1 38
10 Mainz 26 11 4 11 +9 37
11 M'gladbach 27 9 6 12 -13 33
12 Bochum 27 9 5 13 -11 32
13 Wolfsburg 27 9 4 14 -13 31
14 Stuttgart 27 6 8 13 -15 26
15 Augsburg 26 6 8 12 -15 26
16 Hertha 27 7 5 15 -31 26
17 Bielefeld 27 5 10 12 -16 25
18 Greuther Furth 27 3 6 18 -46 15

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Leverkusen Hertha
-5′
🟨 Kevin-Prince Boateng
16′
🔁 M. Lotka
↦ A. Schwolow
1–0 L. Alario
M. Diaby
34′
2–0 K. Bellarabi
M. Diaby
40′
42′
V. Darida 2–1
M. Mittelstädt
Half-time 2–1
46′
🔁 L. Gechter
↦ S. Serdar
64′
🔁 M. Richter
↦ N. Stark
S. Azmoun 🔁
↦ K. Bellarabi
65′
P. Schick 🔁
↦ L. Alario
65′
E. Palacios 🔁
↦ C. Aránguiz
65′
65′
🔁 M. Winkler
↦ M. Mittelstädt
P. Hincapié 🔁
↦ M. Bakker
74′
75′
🔁 D. Selke
↦ I. Belfodil
Full-time 2–1

Line-ups

Leverkusen

4-2-3-1
1 L. Hrádecký G
4 J. Tah D
5 M. Bakker D
12 E. Tapsoba D
6 O. Kossounou D
20 C. Aránguiz M
8 R. Andrich M
38 K. Bellarabi M
13 L. Alario F
19 M. Diaby M
7 Paulinho M
Bench (8)
9 S. Azmoun
14 P. Schick
25 E. Palacios
33 P. Hincapié
22 D. Sinkgraven
21 L. Grill
36 N. Lomb
15 J. Baumgartlinger

Coach: G. Seoane

Hertha

4-1-4-1
1 A. Schwolow G
2 P. Pekarík D
4 D. Boyata D
20 M. Kempf D
5 N. Stark M
17 M. Mittelstädt D
6 V. Darida M
8 S. Serdar M
29 L. Tousart M
18 S. Ascacíbar M
14 I. Belfodil F
Bench (9)
37 M. Lotka
44 L. Gechter
23 M. Richter
35 M. Winkler
7 D. Selke
19 S. Jovetić
46 A. Kade
27 K. Boateng
11 M. Maolida

Coach: F. Magath

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H ✓
1,42
U
5,07
B
6,96
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
1,47
U2,5
2,69
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

M Jöllenbeck · 86 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,7 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
23,0 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,18 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.