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Championship

Referee: T Robinson

Nott'm Forest

S S T T S

2–1

Full-time

Derby

S S S U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Nott'm Forest Derby

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 67%

67%

Points per game

2,0

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 33%

33%

Both score Ø 33%

33%

Average goals

2,3

2,0

Scored

1,5

1,3

Conceded

0,8

0,7

Goal diff per game

+0,7

This season — Championship · 25/27 matches

Win Ø 35%

40%

30%

Points per game

1,4

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 43%

48%

37%

Both score Ø 52%

52%

Average goals

2,4

1,9

Scored

1,3

1,0

Conceded

1,1

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,2

+0,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

47% Possession 53%

13 Shots 4

6 Shots on target 1

2 Blocked shots 1

0 Goalkeeper saves 4

4 Corners 2

3 Offside 2

17 Free kicks against 22

2 Yellow cards 5

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Nott'm Forest 11. · Derby 15. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Fulham	27	17	6	4	+48	57
2	Blackburn	28	15	7	6	+18	52
3	Bournemouth	27	14	8	5	+20	50
4	West Brom	27	12	9	6	+12	45
5	Middlesbrough	27	13	6	8	+8	45
6	QPR	26	13	5	8	+7	44
7	Coventry	26	12	7	7	+11	43
8	Stoke	26	12	5	9	+7	41
9	Huddersfield	26	11	8	7	+5	41
10	Luton	24	10	7	7	+10	37
11	Nott'm Forest	25	10	6	9	+5	36
12	Preston	26	9	9	8	-2	36
13	Blackpool	27	10	6	11	-3	36
14	Sheffield United	24	10	5	9	+3	35
15	Derby	27	8	11	8	+0	35
16	Millwall	26	8	9	9	-2	33
17	Bristol City	27	9	6	12	-12	33
18	Swansea	24	8	7	9	-2	31
19	Reading	27	9	4	14	-15	31
20	Birmingham	27	7	7	13	-16	28
21	Hull	27	7	5	15	-10	26
22	Cardiff	26	6	6	14	-18	24
23	Peterboro	24	5	4	15	-27	19
24	Peterborough	24	5	4	15	-27	19
25	Barnsley	25	2	9	14	-20	15

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Blackburn	15	10	3	2	+17	33
2	Fulham	14	9	3	2	+24	30
3	Middlesbrough	15	9	2	4	+9	29
4	Coventry	13	8	2	3	+12	26
5	West Brom	12	7	5	0	+12	26
6	Bournemouth	12	7	3	2	+13	24
7	Stoke	14	7	3	4	+6	24
8	Huddersfield	12	7	3	2	+6	24
9	QPR	13	7	3	3	+6	24
10	Preston	14	6	6	2	+4	24
11	Derby	13	6	5	2	+5	23
12	Blackpool	15	7	2	6	-1	23
13	Luton	12	6	3	3	+8	21
14	Swansea	12	5	4	3	+5	19
15	Millwall	12	5	4	3	+2	19
16	Reading	15	5	4	6	-7	19
17	Sheffield United	11	5	2	4	+8	17
18	Nott'm Forest	13	5	2	6	-1	17
19	Bristol City	14	4	5	5	-2	17
20	Peterboro	12	4	4	4	+0	16
21	Peterborough	12	4	4	4	+0	16
22	Birmingham	12	4	3	5	-3	15
23	Hull	14	4	3	7	-4	15
24	Barnsley	12	2	4	6	-7	10
25	Cardiff	12	2	1	9	-10	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Fulham	13	8	3	2	+24	27
2	Bournemouth	15	7	5	3	+7	26
3	QPR	13	6	2	5	+1	20
4	Nott'm Forest	12	5	4	3	+6	19
5	Blackburn	13	5	4	4	+1	19
6	West Brom	15	5	4	6	+0	19
7	Sheffield United	13	5	3	5	-5	18
8	Stoke	12	5	2	5	+1	17
9	Coventry	13	4	5	4	-1	17
10	Huddersfield	14	4	5	5	-1	17
11	Cardiff	14	4	5	5	-8	17
12	Luton	12	4	4	4	+2	16
13	Middlesbrough	12	4	4	4	-1	16
14	Bristol City	13	5	1	7	-10	16
15	Millwall	14	3	5	6	-4	14
16	Blackpool	12	3	4	5	-2	13
17	Birmingham	15	3	4	8	-13	13
18	Derby	14	2	6	6	-5	12
19	Preston	12	3	3	6	-6	12
20	Swansea	12	3	3	6	-7	12
21	Reading	12	4	0	8	-8	12
22	Hull	13	3	2	8	-6	11
23	Barnsley	13	0	5	8	-13	5
24	Peterboro	12	1	0	11	-27	3
25	Peterborough	12	1	0	11	-27	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.