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Ligue 2

Toulouse

T S U S S

1–0

Full-time

Bastia

T S T U U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Toulouse Bastia

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

50%

33%

Points per game

1,8

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

67%

17%

Both score Ø 42%

50%

33%

Average goals

3,2

2,2

Scored

2,0

0,8

Conceded

1,2

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,8

-0,5

This season — Ligue 2 · 3/2 matches

Win Ø 34%

67%

Points per game

2,3

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 34%

67%

Both score Ø 67%

33%

100%

Average goals

3,0

2,0

Scored

2,3

1,0

Conceded

0,7

1,0

Goal diff per game

+1,7

+0,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

14 Shots 7

3 Shots on target 3

2 Corners 2

8 Free kicks against 15

0 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Toulouse 2. · Bastia 14. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris FC	3	3	0	0	+6	9
2	Toulouse	3	2	1	0	+5	7
3	Nimes	3	2	1	0	+4	7
4	Auxerre	3	2	1	0	+4	7
5	Caen	3	2	0	1	+4	6
6	Sochaux	3	2	0	1	+1	6
7	Ajaccio	3	1	2	0	+2	5
8	Quevilly Rouen	2	1	1	0	+2	4
9	Le Havre	3	1	1	1	+1	4
10	Niort	3	1	1	1	+0	4
11	Rodez	3	1	1	1	-3	4
12	Guingamp	3	0	3	0	+0	3
13	Pau FC	3	1	0	2	-1	3
14	Bastia	2	0	2	0	+0	2
15	Valenciennes	3	0	2	1	-3	2
16	Dunkerque	3	0	1	2	-2	1
17	Dijon	3	0	1	2	-3	1
18	Nancy	3	0	1	2	-5	1
19	Grenoble	3	0	1	2	-7	1
20	Amiens	3	0	0	3	-5	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Auxerre	2	1	1	0	+3	4
2	Caen	2	1	0	1	+3	3
3	Ajaccio	1	1	0	0	+2	3
4	Nimes	1	1	0	0	+1	3
5	Paris FC	1	1	0	0	+1	3
6	Rodez	1	1	0	0	+1	3
7	Pau FC	2	1	0	1	+0	3
8	Bastia	2	0	2	0	+0	2
9	Toulouse	1	0	1	0	+0	1
10	Guingamp	1	0	1	0	+0	1
11	Dunkerque	2	0	1	1	-1	1
12	Le Havre	2	0	1	1	-1	1
13	Dijon	2	0	1	1	-2	1
14	Valenciennes	2	0	1	1	-3	1
15	Grenoble	2	0	1	1	-4	1
16	Niort	1	0	0	1	-1	0
17	Sochaux	1	0	0	1	-2	0
18	Amiens	2	0	0	2	-3	0
19	Nancy	1	0	0	1	-4	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris FC	2	2	0	0	+5	6
2	Toulouse	2	2	0	0	+5	6
3	Sochaux	2	2	0	0	+3	6
4	Nimes	2	1	1	0	+3	4
5	Quevilly Rouen	2	1	1	0	+2	4
6	Niort	2	1	1	0	+1	4
7	Le Havre	1	1	0	0	+2	3
8	Auxerre	1	1	0	0	+1	3
9	Caen	1	1	0	0	+1	3
10	Ajaccio	2	0	2	0	+0	2
11	Guingamp	2	0	2	0	+0	2
12	Valenciennes	1	0	1	0	+0	1
13	Nancy	2	0	1	1	-1	1
14	Rodez	2	0	1	1	-4	1
15	Dijon	1	0	0	1	-1	0
16	Dunkerque	1	0	0	1	-1	0
17	Pau FC	1	0	0	1	-1	0
18	Amiens	1	0	0	1	-2	0
19	Grenoble	1	0	0	1	-3	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.