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Ligue 1
Referee: Benoît Bastien
Nantes
S S S T S
0–1
Full-time
Toulouse
S S U U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Nantes Toulouse
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 58%
83%
33%
Points per game
2,5
1,3
Over 2.5 Ø 92%
100%
83%
Both score Ø 67%
67%
67%
Average goals
3,5
3,5
Scored
2,7
1,8
Conceded
0,8
1,7
Goal diff per game
+1,8
+0,2
This season — Ligue 1 · 39/1 matches
Win Ø 13%
26%
0%
Points per game
1,1
0,0
Over 2.5 Ø 78%
56%
100%
Both score Ø 85%
69%
100%
Average goals
2,7
3,0
Scored
1,3
1,0
Conceded
1,4
2,0
Goal diff per game
-0,2
-1,0
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

38% Possession 62%
8 Shots 12
2 Shots on target 5
3 Blocked shots 1
4 Goalkeeper saves 2
4 Corners 1
1 Offside 0
19 Free kicks against 17
3 Yellow cards 3
0 Red cards 1
The table before the match
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Lille 38 24 11 3 +41 83
2 Paris SG 38 26 4 8 +58 82
3 Monaco 38 24 6 8 +34 78
4 Lyon 38 22 10 6 +38 76
5 Marseille 38 16 12 10 +7 60
6 Rennes 38 16 10 12 +12 58
7 Lens 38 15 12 11 +1 57
8 Montpellier 38 14 12 12 -2 54
9 Nice 38 15 7 16 -3 52
10 Metz 38 12 11 15 -4 47
11 St Etienne 38 12 10 16 -12 46
12 Bordeaux 38 13 6 19 -14 45
13 Angers 38 12 8 18 -18 44
14 Nantes 39 10 13 16 -7 43
15 Reims 38 9 15 14 -8 42
16 Strasbourg 38 11 9 18 -9 42
17 Lorient 38 11 9 18 -18 42
18 Brest 38 11 8 19 -16 41
19 Nimes 38 9 8 21 -31 35
20 Dijon 38 4 9 25 -48 21

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Nantes Toulouse
D. Appiah 🟨
5′
R. Kolo 🟨
41′
Half-time 0–0
53′
🟨 V. Bayo
62′
V. Bayo 0–1
K. Coulibaly 🔁
↦ M. Coco
65′
70′
🟨 D. Machado
73′
🔁 R. Healey
↦ J. Antiste
P. Chirivella 🟨
77′
78′
🔁 B. Dejaegere
↦ B. van den Boomen
81′
🟨 J. Antiste
M. Simon 🔁
↦ A. Girotto
83′
85′
🔁 R. Gabrielsen
↦ N. Ngoumou
87′
🟥 N. Ngoumou
95′
🟨 P.
Full-time 0–1

Line-ups

Nantes

4-4-2
1 Alban Lafont G
12 Dennis Appiah D
21 Jean-Charles Castelletto D
4 Nicolas Pallois D
14 Charles Traoré D
23 Randal Kolo Muani M
26 Imrân Louza M
5 Pedro Chirivella M
27 Moses Simon M
10 Ludovic Blas F
7 Kalifa Coulibaly F
Bench (9)
30 Denis Petrić
2 Fábio
3 Andrei Girotto
24 Sébastien Corchia
6 Roli Pereira De Sa
11 Marcus Coco
19 Abdoulaye Touré
17 Anthony Limbombe
28 Renaud Emond

Coach: A. Kombouare

Toulouse

3-5-2
30 Maxime Dupé G
19 Bafodé Diakité D
12 Sébastien Dewaest D
4 Ruben Gabrielsen D
2 Kelvin Amian M
31 Brecht Dejaegere M
21 Amine Adli M
8 Kouadio Koné M
3 Deiver Machado M
15 Vakoun Issouf Bayo F
9 Rhys Healey F
Bench (7)
40 Isak Pettersson
23 Moussa Diarra
24 Anthony Rouault
26 Sam Sanna
14 Branco Van den Boomen
29 Nathan N'Goumou
28 Janis Antiste

Coach: P. Garande

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
U1,5 ✓
U2,5 ✓
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja
BLS nei ✓

Referee

Benoît Bastien · 74 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,1 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
21,3 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,36 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.