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Ligue 1

Referee: Frank Schneider

Marseille

S U S S U

1–0

Full-time

Bastia

U T S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Marseille Bastia

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

50%

Points per game

2,0

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

50%

33%

Both score Ø 34%

50%

17%

Average goals

2,5

2,2

Scored

2,0

0,8

Conceded

0,5

1,3

Goal diff per game

+1,5

-0,5

This season — Ligue 1 · 37/37 matches

Win Ø 33%

43%

22%

Points per game

1,6

0,9

Over 2.5 Ø 46%

51%

41%

Both score Ø 46%

49%

43%

Average goals

2,6

2,2

Scored

1,5

0,8

Conceded

1,1

1,4

Goal diff per game

+0,4

-0,6

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

64% Possession 36%

12 Shots 4

3 Shots on target 0

1 Blocked shots 2

0 Goalkeeper saves 2

6 Corners 1

5 Offside 1

17 Free kicks against 20

3 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Marseille 5. · Bastia 18. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Monaco	37	29	5	3	+75	92
2	Paris SG	37	27	5	5	+56	86
3	Nice	37	22	11	4	+27	77
4	Lyon	37	20	4	13	+29	64
5	Marseille	37	16	11	10	+15	59
6	Bordeaux	37	15	13	9	+10	58
7	Nantes	37	14	9	14	-11	51
8	St Etienne	37	12	14	11	+1	50
9	Rennes	37	12	14	11	-5	50
10	Guingamp	37	13	8	16	-8	47
11	Toulouse	37	10	13	14	-4	43
12	Lille	37	12	7	18	-10	43
13	Angers	37	12	7	18	-11	43
14	Metz	37	11	10	16	-32	43
15	Montpellier	37	10	9	18	-16	39
16	Dijon	37	8	12	17	-12	36
17	Caen	37	10	6	21	-29	36
18	Bastia	37	8	11	18	-24	35
19	Lorient	37	10	5	22	-26	35
20	Nancy	37	8	8	21	-25	32

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Monaco	19	17	1	1	+50	52
2	Nice	19	14	4	1	+23	46
3	Paris SG	18	13	5	0	+35	44
4	Marseille	18	12	4	2	+19	40
5	Lyon	18	12	0	6	+20	36
6	Guingamp	18	11	3	4	+14	36
7	Rennes	18	10	6	2	+12	36
8	Bordeaux	19	9	6	4	+8	33
9	St Etienne	19	7	9	3	+6	30
10	Toulouse	18	8	5	5	+10	29
11	Montpellier	19	8	5	6	+6	29
12	Nantes	19	8	4	7	-5	28
13	Metz	19	7	7	5	-7	28
14	Dijon	19	7	6	6	+6	27
15	Angers	18	7	5	6	+4	26
16	Bastia	19	5	10	4	+3	25
17	Lorient	18	7	3	8	-4	24
18	Caen	19	7	2	10	-16	23
19	Lille	18	6	3	9	-3	21
20	Nancy	18	6	3	9	-4	21

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	19	14	0	5	+21	42
2	Monaco	18	12	4	2	+25	40
3	Nice	18	8	7	3	+4	31
4	Lyon	19	8	4	7	+9	28
5	Bordeaux	18	6	7	5	+2	25
6	Nantes	18	6	5	7	-6	23
7	Lille	19	6	4	9	-7	22
8	St Etienne	18	5	5	8	-5	20
9	Marseille	19	4	7	8	-4	19
10	Angers	19	5	2	12	-15	17
11	Metz	18	4	3	11	-25	15
12	Toulouse	19	2	8	9	-14	14
13	Rennes	19	2	8	9	-17	14
14	Caen	18	3	4	11	-13	13
15	Nancy	19	2	5	12	-21	11
16	Lorient	19	3	2	14	-22	11
17	Guingamp	19	2	5	12	-22	11
18	Montpellier	18	2	4	12	-22	10
19	Bastia	18	3	1	14	-27	10
20	Dijon	18	1	6	11	-18	9

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.