Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.
The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.
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Kalmar
Halmstad
Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.
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The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.
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| # | Team | K | V | U | T | +/− | P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Malmo FF
|
15 | 9 | 3 | 3 | +14 | 30 |
| 2 |
Djurgarden
|
14 | 9 | 3 | 2 | +13 | 30 |
| 3 |
AIK
|
14 | 8 | 3 | 3 | +8 | 27 |
| 4 |
Elfsborg
|
14 | 8 | 2 | 4 | +9 | 26 |
| 5 |
Hammarby
|
14 | 6 | 5 | 3 | +8 | 23 |
| 6 |
Norrkoping
|
14 | 6 | 2 | 6 | +3 | 20 |
| 7 |
Kalmar
|
14 | 5 | 5 | 4 | -1 | 20 |
| 8 |
Hacken
|
14 | 5 | 4 | 5 | +5 | 19 |
| 9 |
Goteborg
|
15 | 4 | 7 | 4 | +0 | 19 |
| 10 |
Halmstad
|
14 | 3 | 7 | 4 | -1 | 16 |
| 11 |
Sirius
|
14 | 4 | 4 | 6 | -10 | 16 |
| 12 |
Degerfors
|
14 | 4 | 3 | 7 | -10 | 15 |
| 13 |
Varberg
|
14 | 3 | 5 | 6 | -6 | 14 |
| 14 | Orebro | 14 | 3 | 3 | 8 | -16 | 12 |
| 15 |
Mjallby
|
14 | 2 | 5 | 7 | -7 | 11 |
| 16 | Ostersunds | 14 | 2 | 3 | 9 | -9 | 9 |
Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.
Green columns are the outcomes that came in.
Norrkoping
Kalmar
Kalmar
Mjallby
Kalmar
Djurgarden
AIK
Kalmar
Kalmar
Hacken
The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.