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Championship

Referee: G Ward

Stoke

S T U S S

1–2

Full-time

Millwall

T S T S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Stoke Millwall

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

50%

67%

Points per game

1,7

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 33%

33%

Both score Ø 25%

17%

33%

Average goals

1,8

2,2

Scored

1,0

1,2

Conceded

0,8

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,2

This season — Championship · 39/39 matches

Win Ø 35%

36%

33%

Points per game

1,4

Over 2.5 Ø 34%

36%

31%

Both score Ø 44%

38%

49%

Average goals

2,2

1,9

Scored

1,1

1,0

Conceded

1,1

0,9

Goal diff per game

+0,1

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

56% Possession 44%

14 Shots 10

5 Shots on target 3

4 Blocked shots 3

1 Goalkeeper saves 4

5 Corners 4

0 Offside 2

11 Free kicks against 17

1 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Stoke 11. · Millwall 10. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Norwich	39	25	9	5	+29	84
2	Watford	40	23	10	7	+30	79
3	Brentford	36	18	11	7	+25	65
4	Barnsley	37	19	8	10	+11	65
5	Reading	39	18	9	12	+11	63
6	Bournemouth	37	17	11	9	+21	62
7	Swansea	35	18	8	9	+11	62
8	Cardiff	39	16	10	13	+17	58
9	Middlesbrough	40	16	9	15	+5	57
10	Millwall	39	13	16	10	+3	55
11	Stoke	39	14	13	12	+2	55
12	QPR	38	14	11	13	-1	53
13	Luton	38	14	8	16	-12	50
14	Bristol City	39	15	4	20	-13	49
15	Blackburn	39	12	10	17	+7	46
16	Nott'm Forest	39	11	12	16	-7	45
17	Preston	39	13	6	20	-10	45
18	Huddersfield	38	11	10	17	-11	43
19	Derby	39	11	10	18	-13	43
20	Birmingham	39	10	11	18	-21	41
21	Coventry	38	9	12	17	-19	39
22	Sheffield Weds	38	10	8	20	-20	38
23	Rotherham	35	10	5	20	-10	35
24	Wycombe	39	7	9	23	-35	30

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Watford	20	16	2	2	+27	50
2	Norwich	19	12	6	1	+17	42
3	Bournemouth	20	12	3	5	+16	39
4	Swansea	18	10	5	3	+10	35
5	Barnsley	19	10	5	4	+7	35
6	Reading	19	11	1	7	+8	34
7	Middlesbrough	20	10	4	6	+7	34
8	Brentford	16	9	5	2	+15	32
9	Stoke	19	9	4	6	+5	31
10	QPR	20	9	4	7	+2	31
11	Huddersfield	19	8	5	6	+7	29
12	Millwall	20	6	10	4	+3	28
13	Coventry	19	7	7	5	+0	28
14	Luton	18	7	6	5	+2	27
15	Cardiff	20	7	4	9	+10	25
16	Blackburn	19	6	7	6	+4	25
17	Sheffield Weds	18	6	6	6	+1	24
18	Derby	20	6	6	8	-4	24
19	Bristol City	20	7	2	11	-9	23
20	Nott'm Forest	19	5	7	7	-2	22
21	Preston	20	5	5	10	-3	20
22	Wycombe	20	5	5	10	-11	20
23	Birmingham	20	5	3	12	-17	18
24	Rotherham	17	4	3	10	-5	15

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Norwich	20	13	3	4	+12	42
2	Brentford	20	9	6	5	+10	33
3	Cardiff	19	9	6	4	+7	33
4	Barnsley	18	9	3	6	+4	30
5	Reading	20	7	8	5	+3	29
6	Watford	20	7	8	5	+3	29
7	Swansea	17	8	3	6	+1	27
8	Millwall	19	7	6	6	+0	27
9	Bristol City	19	8	2	9	-4	26
10	Preston	19	8	1	10	-7	25
11	Stoke	20	5	9	6	-3	24
12	Bournemouth	17	5	8	4	+5	23
13	Middlesbrough	20	6	5	9	-2	23
14	Birmingham	19	5	8	6	-4	23
15	Nott'm Forest	20	6	5	9	-5	23
16	Luton	20	7	2	11	-14	23
17	QPR	18	5	7	6	-3	22
18	Blackburn	20	6	3	11	+3	21
19	Rotherham	18	6	2	10	-5	20
20	Derby	19	5	4	10	-9	19
21	Huddersfield	19	3	5	11	-18	14
22	Sheffield Weds	20	4	2	14	-21	14
23	Coventry	19	2	5	12	-19	11
24	Wycombe	19	2	4	13	-24	10

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.