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Championship
Referee: J Simpson
Derby
T U T T U
2–1
Full-time
Charlton
T T U U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Derby Charlton
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 9%
0%
17%
Points per game
0,5
0,8
Over 2.5 Ø 42%
17%
67%
Both score Ø 59%
50%
67%
Average goals
1,8
3,2
Scored
0,5
1,3
Conceded
1,3
1,8
Goal diff per game
-0,8
-0,5
This season — Championship · 24/24 matches
Win Ø 27%
25%
29%
Points per game
1,1
1,2
Over 2.5 Ø 51%
38%
63%
Both score Ø 55%
46%
63%
Average goals
2,3
2,8
Scored
0,9
1,4
Conceded
1,3
1,4
Goal diff per game
-0,4
+0,0
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

39% Possession 61%
12 Shots 11
7 Shots on target 5
2 Blocked shots 2
4 Goalkeeper saves 5
5 Corners 2
1 Offside 1
5 Free kicks against 21
1 Yellow cards 5
1 Red cards 0
The table before the match Derby 20. · Charlton 18.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Leeds 25 15 6 4 +22 51
2 West Brom 25 14 9 2 +20 51
3 Fulham 23 12 5 6 +12 41
4 Nott'm Forest 24 11 7 6 +8 40
5 Sheffield Weds 25 11 6 8 +12 39
6 Preston 25 11 6 8 +6 39
7 Swansea 23 10 8 5 +6 38
8 Bristol City 25 10 8 7 +3 38
9 Millwall 25 9 10 6 +0 37
10 Hull 25 10 6 9 +5 36
11 Cardiff 24 9 9 6 +3 36
12 Blackburn 25 10 6 9 +1 36
13 Reading 24 9 5 10 +4 32
14 QPR 25 9 5 11 -9 32
15 Brentford 22 9 4 9 +11 31
16 Middlesbrough 25 7 9 9 -8 30
17 Birmingham 25 8 5 12 -11 29
18 Charlton 24 7 7 10 -1 28
19 Huddersfield 25 7 7 11 -9 28
20 Derby 24 6 9 9 -10 27
21 Stoke 25 6 3 16 -12 21
22 Barnsley 25 4 9 12 -15 21
23 Luton 25 6 3 16 -22 21
24 Wigan 25 4 8 13 -16 20

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Derby Charlton
1–0 J. Knight
10′
Krystian Bielik 🟥
17′
39′
🟨 Naby Sarr
Half-time 1–0
46′
🔁 L. Taylor
↦ M. Bonne
69′
🟨 Conor Gallagher
69′
🔁 J. Davison
↦ N. Sarr
70′
🔁 B. Dempsey
↦ A. Oshilaja
2–0 J. Knight
M. Bird
77′
80′
🟨 Chris Solly
81′
🟨 Darren Pratley
83′
L. Taylor 2–1
Duane Holmes 🟨
87′
90′
🟨 Ben Dempsey
M. Whittaker 🔁
↦ J. Marriott
92′
C. Forsyth 🔁
↦ M. Waghorn
95′
Full-time 2–1

Line-ups

Derby

4-2-3-1
12 B. Hamer G
33 C. Davies D
2 A. Wisdom D
25 M. Lowe D
23 D. Holmes M
16 M. Clarke D
5 K. Bielik M
41 M. Bird M
38 J. Knight M
9 M. Waghorn M
14 J. Marriott F
Bench (7)
3 C. Forsyth
49 M. Whittaker
19 C. Martin
46 S. Malone
40 L. Sibley
8 K. Dowell
21 K. Roos

Coach: P. Cocu

Charlton

5-4-1
1 D. Phillips G
20 C. Solly D
23 N. Sarr D
4 A. Oshilaja M
5 T. Lockyer D
3 B. Purrington D
15 D. Pratley D
11 C. Gallagher M
19 A. Morgan M
45 A. Doughty M
17 M. Bonne F
Bench (7)
9 L. Taylor
44 J. Davison
33 B. Dempsey
6 J. Pearce
16 J. Ledley
2 A. Matthews
30 A. Maynard-Brewer

Coach: L. Bowyer

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H ✓
1,77
U
3,69
B
4,60
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
1,87
U2,5
1,93
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

J Simpson · 121 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,3 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
24,0 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,14 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.