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Premier League

Referee: Martin Atkinson

Man City

T S S S T

2–1

Full-time

Chelsea

S S S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Man City Chelsea

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 84%

67%

100%

Points per game

2,0

3,0

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

67%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

3,0

3,2

Scored

1,8

2,5

Conceded

1,2

0,7

Goal diff per game

+0,7

+1,8

This season — Premier League · 12/12 matches

Win Ø 67%

67%

Points per game

2,1

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

83%

67%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

4,0

3,7

Scored

2,9

2,3

Conceded

1,1

1,4

Goal diff per game

+1,8

+0,8

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–1

46% Possession 54%

15 Shots 11

4 Shots on target 2

4 Blocked shots 3

1 Goalkeeper saves 2

8 Corners 2

3 Offside 4

5 Free kicks against 9

1 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Man City 4. · Chelsea 3. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	13	12	1	0	+19	37
2	Leicester	13	9	2	2	+23	29
3	Chelsea	12	8	2	2	+10	26
4	Man City	12	8	1	3	+22	25
5	Wolves	13	4	7	2	+2	19
6	Burnley	13	5	3	5	+2	18
7	Arsenal	13	4	6	3	-1	18
8	Sheffield United	12	4	5	3	+4	17
9	Tottenham	13	4	5	4	+2	17
10	Man United	12	4	4	4	+4	16
11	Bournemouth	13	4	4	5	-1	16
12	Brighton	13	4	3	6	-4	15
13	Newcastle	12	4	3	5	-7	15
14	Crystal Palace	13	4	3	6	-7	15
15	Everton	13	4	2	7	-7	14
16	West Ham	13	3	4	6	-7	13
17	Aston Villa	12	3	2	7	-3	11
18	Norwich	13	3	1	9	-15	10
19	Southampton	13	2	3	8	-18	9
20	Watford	13	1	5	7	-18	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	6	6	0	0	+11	18
2	Leicester	6	5	1	0	+11	16
3	Man City	6	4	1	1	+14	13
4	Arsenal	7	3	4	0	+3	13
5	Burnley	6	4	0	2	+4	12
6	Tottenham	6	3	2	1	+6	11
7	Man United	6	3	2	1	+6	11
8	Chelsea	6	3	2	1	+4	11
9	Brighton	7	3	2	2	+2	11
10	Everton	7	3	1	3	-2	10
11	Sheffield United	6	3	0	3	+2	9
12	Newcastle	6	2	3	1	+1	9
13	Bournemouth	7	2	3	2	+0	9
14	Wolves	6	2	3	1	+0	9
15	Aston Villa	6	2	2	2	+1	8
16	Crystal Palace	7	2	2	3	-2	8
17	West Ham	7	2	1	4	-4	7
18	Norwich	6	2	0	4	-6	6
19	Watford	7	0	3	4	-9	3
20	Southampton	6	0	1	5	-16	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	7	6	1	0	+8	19
2	Chelsea	6	5	0	1	+6	15
3	Leicester	7	4	1	2	+12	13
4	Man City	6	4	0	2	+8	12
5	Wolves	7	2	4	1	+2	10
6	Sheffield United	6	1	5	0	+2	8
7	Southampton	7	2	2	3	-2	8
8	Bournemouth	6	2	1	3	-1	7
9	Crystal Palace	6	2	1	3	-5	7
10	Burnley	7	1	3	3	-2	6
11	West Ham	6	1	3	2	-3	6
12	Tottenham	7	1	3	3	-4	6
13	Newcastle	6	2	0	4	-8	6
14	Man United	6	1	2	3	-2	5
15	Arsenal	6	1	2	3	-4	5
16	Watford	6	1	2	3	-9	5
17	Everton	6	1	1	4	-5	4
18	Brighton	6	1	1	4	-6	4
19	Norwich	7	1	1	5	-9	4
20	Aston Villa	6	1	0	5	-4	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.