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Championship

Referee: James Linington

Derby

T U T T S

1–1

Full-time

Preston

S S U S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Derby Preston

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

17%

50%

Points per game

0,8

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

3,0

2,7

Scored

1,3

1,5

Conceded

1,7

1,2

Goal diff per game

-0,3

+0,3

This season — Championship · 35/35 matches

Win Ø 40%

40%

Points per game

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 41%

31%

51%

Both score Ø 42%

26%

57%

Average goals

2,0

2,6

Scored

1,1

1,3

Conceded

0,9

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,2

+0,1

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

49% Possession 51%

16 Shots 6

5 Shots on target 1

6 Blocked shots 2

0 Goalkeeper saves 4

3 Corners 3

3 Offside 2

7 Free kicks against 12

1 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Derby 10. · Preston 9. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Newcastle	35	24	4	7	+40	76
2	Brighton	35	21	8	6	+27	71
3	Leeds	35	20	4	11	+14	64
4	Huddersfield	31	19	5	7	+8	62
5	Reading	32	18	6	8	+8	60
6	Sheffield Weds	33	16	7	10	+10	55
7	Fulham	32	14	11	7	+15	53
8	Norwich	35	15	7	13	+7	52
9	Preston	35	14	10	11	+3	52
10	Derby	35	14	9	12	+6	51
11	Barnsley	35	14	8	13	+3	50
12	Cardiff	35	13	7	15	-3	46
13	Aston Villa	35	11	12	12	-3	45
14	Brentford	34	12	8	14	+2	44
15	Ipswich	35	10	13	12	-7	43
16	QPR	35	12	7	16	-10	43
17	Birmingham	35	11	10	14	-15	43
18	Nott'm Forest	35	11	7	17	-9	40
19	Burton Albion	35	9	10	16	-13	37
20	Blackburn	34	9	9	16	-11	36
21	Wolves	33	9	8	16	-6	35
22	Bristol City	35	9	7	19	-8	34
23	Wigan	35	7	10	18	-11	31
24	Rotherham	35	4	5	26	-47	17

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Brighton	18	13	3	2	+26	42
2	Leeds	18	12	2	4	+12	38
3	Reading	17	11	4	2	+13	37
4	Norwich	17	11	3	3	+21	36
5	Newcastle	17	11	2	4	+20	35
6	Huddersfield	15	11	2	2	+10	35
7	Sheffield Weds	16	11	1	4	+12	34
8	Aston Villa	17	8	7	2	+9	31
9	Preston	18	9	4	5	+8	31
10	Nott'm Forest	17	9	3	5	+8	30
11	Derby	18	8	6	4	+8	30
12	Cardiff	18	8	3	7	+3	27
13	Brentford	16	7	5	4	+11	26
14	Fulham	16	7	5	4	+6	26
15	Ipswich	18	6	8	4	+2	26
16	Blackburn	18	7	5	6	+0	26
17	Birmingham	18	7	4	7	-4	25
18	Burton Albion	17	7	3	7	+1	24
19	Bristol City	17	7	3	7	+0	24
20	Barnsley	18	6	6	6	-1	24
21	QPR	18	6	4	8	-7	22
22	Rotherham	17	4	4	9	-7	16
23	Wigan	17	3	6	8	-6	15
24	Wolves	16	4	3	9	-7	15

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Newcastle	18	13	2	3	+20	41
2	Brighton	17	8	5	4	+1	29
3	Fulham	16	7	6	3	+9	27
4	Huddersfield	16	8	3	5	-2	27
5	Barnsley	17	8	2	7	+4	26
6	Leeds	17	8	2	7	+2	26
7	Reading	15	7	2	6	-5	23
8	Sheffield Weds	17	5	6	6	-2	21
9	Derby	17	6	3	8	-2	21
10	QPR	17	6	3	8	-3	21
11	Preston	17	5	6	6	-5	21
12	Wolves	17	5	5	7	+1	20
13	Cardiff	17	5	4	8	-6	19
14	Brentford	18	5	3	10	-9	18
15	Birmingham	17	4	6	7	-11	18
16	Ipswich	17	4	5	8	-9	17
17	Wigan	18	4	4	10	-5	16
18	Norwich	18	4	4	10	-14	16
19	Aston Villa	18	3	5	10	-12	14
20	Burton Albion	18	2	7	9	-14	13
21	Bristol City	18	2	4	12	-8	10
22	Blackburn	16	2	4	10	-11	10
23	Nott'm Forest	18	2	4	12	-17	10
24	Rotherham	18	0	1	17	-40	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.