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Pro League
Referee: Kevin van Damme
Charleroi
T U T S S
1–0
Full-time

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Charleroi Royal Excel Mouscron
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 34%
50%
17%
Points per game
1,7
1,0
Over 2.5 Ø 59%
67%
50%
Both score Ø 59%
50%
67%
Average goals
2,5
2,7
Scored
1,3
1,3
Conceded
1,2
1,3
Goal diff per game
+0,2
+0,0
This season — Pro League · 12/11 matches
Win Ø 43%
50%
36%
Points per game
1,8
1,5
Over 2.5 Ø 56%
67%
45%
Both score Ø 57%
58%
55%
Average goals
2,8
2,5
Scored
1,8
1,3
Conceded
1,1
1,2
Goal diff per game
+0,7
+0,1
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

50% Possession 50%
9 Shots 6
6 Shots on target 1
1 Goalkeeper saves 5
2 Corners 10
4 Offside 0
13 Free kicks against 17
2 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Charleroi 5. · Royal Excel Mouscron 9.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Club Brugge 12 10 2 0 +26 32
2 Standard 12 8 2 2 +18 26
3 Gent 12 7 2 3 +11 23
4 Genk 13 7 2 4 +8 23
5 Charleroi 12 6 3 3 +8 21
6 Mechelen 12 6 3 3 +2 21
7 Antwerp 11 6 2 3 +9 20
8 Waregem 12 4 5 3 +4 17
9 Royal Excel Mouscron 11 4 4 3 +1 16
10 Mouscron 12 4 4 4 +0 16
11 Anderlecht 14 3 6 5 -1 15
12 Kortrijk 12 4 2 6 +1 14
13 St Truiden 13 3 4 6 -11 13
14 Oostende 12 3 2 7 -10 11
15 Eupen 14 2 5 7 -17 11
16 Waasland-Beveren 11 1 4 6 -14 7
17 Beveren 11 1 4 6 -14 7
18 Cercle Brugge 12 2 0 10 -21 6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Charleroi Royal Excel Mouscron
Marco Ilaimaharitra 🟨
13′
40′
🟨 Deni Hočko
45′
🟨 Frank Boya
Half-time 0–0
46′
🔁 B. Van Durmen
↦ Joan Campins
1–0 A. Gholizadeh
C. Diandy
54′
58′
🔁 C. Omoigui
↦ S. Allagui
70′
🔁 B. Godeau
↦ F. Boya
S. Nicholson 🔁
↦ K. Rezaei
72′
S. Marinos 🔁
↦ M. Busi
78′
G. Hendrickx 🔁
↦ M. Ilaimaharitra
87′
Dorian Dessoleil 🟨
90′
Full-time 1–0

Line-ups

Charleroi

4-3-3
1 N. Penneteau G
24 D. Dessoleil D
5 M. Diagne D
25 Nurio Fortuna D
4 M. Busi D
13 C. Diandy M
44 R. Morioka M
77 M. Bruno F
26 M. Ilaimaharitra M
8 A. Gholizadeh
10 K. Rezaei F
Bench (7)
16 S. Nicholson
17 S. Marinos
22 G. Hendrickx
6 G. Zajkov
27 M. Fall
40 R. Descamps
7 D. Henen

Coach: K. Belhocine

Royal Excel Mouscron

3-5-2
1 J. Butez G
25 R. Pietrzak D
33 K. Wimmer D
22 Joan Campins D
4 N. De Medina D
23 Diogo Queirós D
6 D. Hočko M
24 Aleix García M
15 F. Boya M
9 S. Allagui F
45 J. Osabutey F
Bench (7)
30 B. Van Durmen
20 C. Omoigui
31 B. Godeau
28 J. Huyghebaert
13 A. Ciranni
90 V. Vasić
7 F. Olinga

Coach: B. Hollerbach

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
U1,5 ✓
U2,5 ✓
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja
BLS nei ✓

Referee

Kevin van Damme · 28 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,8 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
18,4 / match
Below average

🟥 Red cards: 0,18 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.