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Primeira Liga

Referee: Helder Malheiro

Nacional

S S U T S

1–0

Full-time

Guimaraes

S S S U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Nacional Guimaraes

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

50%

67%

Points per game

1,8

2,3

Over 2.5 Ø 34%

50%

17%

Both score Ø 42%

50%

33%

Average goals

3,5

1,8

Scored

1,8

1,3

Conceded

1,7

0,5

Goal diff per game

+0,2

+0,8

This season — Primeira Liga · 14/14 matches

Win Ø 40%

29%

50%

Points per game

1,1

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 47%

57%

36%

Both score Ø 54%

50%

57%

Average goals

3,1

2,6

Scored

1,2

1,5

Conceded

1,9

1,1

Goal diff per game

-0,6

+0,4

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

36% Possession 64%

11 Shots 6

3 Shots on target 2

2 Blocked shots 1

2 Goalkeeper saves 2

4 Corners 3

1 Offside 1

17 Free kicks against 15

3 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Nacional 12. · Guimaraes 5. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	14	12	0	2	+21	36
2	Benfica	14	10	2	2	+18	32
3	Sp Lisbon	14	10	1	3	+15	31
4	Sp Braga	14	9	3	2	+12	30
5	Guimaraes	14	7	4	3	+6	25
6	Belenenses	14	5	7	2	+4	22
7	Moreirense	14	7	1	6	-4	22
8	Santa Clara	15	6	2	7	+1	20
9	Portimonense	14	6	2	6	-5	20
10	Rio Ave	14	5	4	5	+0	19
11	Vitoria Setubal	14	5	2	7	-2	17
12	Nacional	14	4	4	6	-9	16
13	Tondela	15	4	3	8	-4	15
14	Boavista	14	3	4	7	-6	13
15	Maritimo	14	3	2	9	-10	11
16	Aves	14	3	2	9	-11	11
17	Feirense	14	2	4	8	-13	10
18	Chaves	14	2	1	11	-13	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	8	7	0	1	+15	21
2	Sp Lisbon	7	7	0	0	+14	21
3	Sp Braga	7	6	1	0	+12	19
4	Benfica	7	5	1	1	+10	16
5	Portimonense	7	4	2	1	+4	14
6	Guimaraes	7	4	2	1	+4	14
7	Rio Ave	7	4	2	1	+3	14
8	Moreirense	7	4	1	2	+2	13
9	Belenenses	7	3	2	2	+2	11
10	Vitoria Setubal	7	3	0	4	+0	9
11	Aves	7	2	2	3	+1	8
12	Tondela	8	2	2	4	-2	8
13	Feirense	7	1	4	2	-1	7
14	Boavista	6	2	1	3	-1	7
15	Santa Clara	8	2	1	5	-3	7
16	Maritimo	7	2	1	4	-4	7
17	Nacional	7	2	1	4	-6	7
18	Chaves	6	1	1	4	-2	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	7	5	1	1	+8	16
2	Porto	6	5	0	1	+6	15
3	Santa Clara	7	4	1	2	+4	13
4	Guimaraes	7	3	2	2	+2	11
5	Belenenses	7	2	5	0	+2	11
6	Sp Braga	7	3	2	2	+0	11
7	Sp Lisbon	7	3	1	3	+1	10
8	Nacional	7	2	3	2	-3	9
9	Moreirense	7	3	0	4	-6	9
10	Vitoria Setubal	7	2	2	3	-2	8
11	Tondela	7	2	1	4	-2	7
12	Boavista	8	1	3	4	-5	6
13	Portimonense	7	2	0	5	-9	6
14	Rio Ave	7	1	2	4	-3	5
15	Maritimo	7	1	1	5	-6	4
16	Chaves	8	1	0	7	-11	3
17	Aves	7	1	0	6	-12	3
18	Feirense	7	1	0	6	-12	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.