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Primeira Liga

Referee: Rui Manuel Gomes Costa

Porto

S S S S S

3–1

Full-time

Nacional

S U T S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Porto Nacional

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 84%

100%

67%

Points per game

3,0

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

50%

33%

Both score Ø 42%

50%

33%

Average goals

2,3

2,7

Scored

1,8

1,5

Conceded

0,5

1,2

Goal diff per game

+1,3

+0,3

This season — Primeira Liga · 15/15 matches

Win Ø 60%

87%

33%

Points per game

2,6

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

47%

53%

Both score Ø 40%

33%

47%

Average goals

2,7

2,9

Scored

2,1

1,2

Conceded

0,6

1,7

Goal diff per game

+1,5

-0,5

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–1

49% Possession 51%

12 Shots 8

4 Shots on target 3

3 Blocked shots 2

2 Goalkeeper saves 1

6 Corners 6

2 Offside 1

17 Free kicks against 10

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Porto 1. · Nacional 11. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	15	13	0	2	+22	39
2	Sp Braga	16	11	3	2	+15	36
3	Benfica	16	11	2	3	+18	35
4	Sp Lisbon	16	11	1	4	+15	34
5	Moreirense	16	9	1	6	-2	28
6	Guimaraes	16	7	4	5	+4	25
7	Belenenses	16	6	7	3	+4	25
8	Portimonense	16	7	2	7	-4	23
9	Santa Clara	16	6	3	7	+1	21
10	Rio Ave	16	5	4	7	-3	19
11	Nacional	15	5	4	6	-8	19
12	Tondela	16	5	3	8	-3	18
13	Vitoria Setubal	16	5	3	8	-3	18
14	Boavista	16	4	4	8	-6	16
15	Maritimo	16	4	2	10	-11	14
16	Feirense	16	2	6	8	-13	12
17	Aves	16	3	2	11	-13	11
18	Chaves	16	2	3	11	-13	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Braga	9	8	1	0	+15	25
2	Sp Lisbon	8	8	0	0	+15	24
3	Porto	8	7	0	1	+15	21
4	Benfica	8	6	1	1	+12	19
5	Portimonense	8	5	2	1	+6	17
6	Moreirense	8	5	1	2	+3	16
7	Guimaraes	7	4	2	1	+4	14
8	Belenenses	8	4	2	2	+3	14
9	Rio Ave	8	4	2	2	+2	14
10	Tondela	9	3	2	4	-1	11
11	Vitoria Setubal	8	3	1	4	+0	10
12	Boavista	7	3	1	3	+0	10
13	Maritimo	8	3	1	4	-3	10
14	Nacional	8	3	1	4	-5	10
15	Aves	8	2	2	4	+0	8
16	Feirense	8	1	5	2	-1	8
17	Santa Clara	8	2	1	5	-3	7
18	Chaves	7	1	2	4	-2	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	7	6	0	1	+7	18
2	Benfica	8	5	1	2	+6	16
3	Santa Clara	8	4	2	2	+4	14
4	Moreirense	8	4	0	4	-5	12
5	Belenenses	8	2	5	1	+1	11
6	Guimaraes	9	3	2	4	+0	11
7	Sp Braga	7	3	2	2	+0	11
8	Sp Lisbon	8	3	1	4	+0	10
9	Nacional	7	2	3	2	-3	9
10	Vitoria Setubal	8	2	2	4	-3	8
11	Tondela	7	2	1	4	-2	7
12	Boavista	9	1	3	5	-6	6
13	Portimonense	8	2	0	6	-10	6
14	Rio Ave	8	1	2	5	-5	5
15	Maritimo	8	1	1	6	-8	4
16	Chaves	9	1	1	7	-11	4
17	Feirense	8	1	1	6	-12	4
18	Aves	8	1	0	7	-13	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.