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Premier League

Referee: Martin Atkinson

Man City

S S S S T

3–1

Full-time

Arsenal

T S T S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Man City Arsenal

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

67%

50%

Points per game

2,0

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

100%

50%

Both score Ø 67%

67%

Average goals

3,2

Scored

2,2

1,7

Conceded

1,0

1,5

Goal diff per game

+1,2

+0,2

This season — Premier League · 24/24 matches

Win Ø 67%

75%

58%

Points per game

2,3

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 69%

75%

63%

Both score Ø 65%

54%

75%

Average goals

3,4

3,5

Scored

2,6

2,1

Conceded

0,8

1,4

Goal diff per game

+1,8

+0,7

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–1

58% Possession 42%

19 Shots 4

12 Shots on target 2

4 Blocked shots 2

1 Goalkeeper saves 9

4 Corners 2

5 Offside 0

11 Free kicks against 8

1 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Man City 3. · Arsenal 6. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	24	19	4	1	+41	61
2	Tottenham	25	19	0	6	+27	57
3	Man City	24	18	2	4	+44	56
4	Chelsea	25	15	5	5	+22	50
5	Man United	25	14	6	5	+14	48
6	Arsenal	24	14	5	5	+17	47
7	Wolves	25	11	5	9	+1	38
8	Watford	25	9	7	9	-1	34
9	Everton	25	9	6	10	+0	33
10	Bournemouth	25	10	3	12	-7	33
11	Leicester	25	9	5	11	-1	32
12	West Ham	24	9	4	11	-7	31
13	Brighton	25	7	6	12	-9	27
14	Crystal Palace	25	7	5	13	-7	26
15	Newcastle	25	6	6	13	-12	24
16	Southampton	25	5	9	11	-15	24
17	Burnley	25	6	6	13	-20	24
18	Cardiff	25	6	4	15	-24	22
19	Fulham	25	4	5	16	-30	17
20	Huddersfield	25	2	5	18	-33	11

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	12	11	0	1	+30	33
2	Liverpool	12	10	2	0	+25	32
3	Arsenal	13	10	2	1	+17	32
4	Chelsea	13	8	4	1	+17	28
5	Man United	12	7	4	1	+9	25
6	Tottenham	12	8	0	4	+10	24
7	Bournemouth	13	7	3	3	+8	24
8	Everton	13	6	3	4	+2	21
9	Wolves	13	6	2	5	+1	20
10	Brighton	12	5	4	3	+3	19
11	West Ham	12	5	2	5	-1	17
12	Watford	12	5	2	5	-2	17
13	Cardiff	13	5	2	6	-8	17
14	Fulham	12	4	3	5	-6	15
15	Leicester	12	4	2	6	+0	14
16	Burnley	12	4	2	6	-7	14
17	Newcastle	13	4	1	8	-6	13
18	Crystal Palace	12	3	3	6	-3	12
19	Southampton	12	2	6	4	-5	12
20	Huddersfield	13	1	2	10	-15	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Tottenham	13	11	0	2	+17	33
2	Liverpool	12	9	2	1	+16	29
3	Man City	12	7	2	3	+14	23
4	Man United	13	7	2	4	+5	23
5	Chelsea	12	7	1	4	+5	22
6	Wolves	12	5	3	4	+0	18
7	Leicester	13	5	3	5	-1	18
8	Watford	13	4	5	4	+1	17
9	Arsenal	11	4	3	4	+0	15
10	Crystal Palace	13	4	2	7	-4	14
11	West Ham	12	4	2	6	-6	14
12	Everton	12	3	3	6	-2	12
13	Southampton	13	3	3	7	-10	12
14	Newcastle	12	2	5	5	-6	11
15	Burnley	13	2	4	7	-13	10
16	Bournemouth	12	3	0	9	-15	9
17	Brighton	13	2	2	9	-12	8
18	Huddersfield	12	1	3	8	-18	6
19	Cardiff	12	1	2	9	-16	5
20	Fulham	13	0	2	11	-24	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.