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Primeira Liga
Referee: Artur Soares Dias
Porto
S S T S S
1–0
Full-time
Sp Braga
S S U U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Porto Sp Braga
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 75%
83%
67%
Points per game
2,5
2,3
Over 2.5 Ø 25%
17%
33%
Both score Ø 25%
0%
50%
Average goals
1,8
2,0
Scored
1,7
1,5
Conceded
0,2
0,5
Goal diff per game
+1,5
+1,0
This season — Primeira Liga · 9/9 matches
Win Ø 73%
78%
67%
Points per game
2,3
2,3
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
44%
56%
Both score Ø 45%
22%
67%
Average goals
2,9
3,1
Scored
2,2
2,1
Conceded
0,7
1,0
Goal diff per game
+1,6
+1,1
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

60% Possession 40%
17 Shots 10
3 Shots on target 2
6 Blocked shots 1
2 Goalkeeper saves 2
9 Corners 5
1 Offside 4
16 Free kicks against 18
1 Yellow cards 1
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Porto 1. · Sp Braga 2.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Porto 9 7 0 2 +14 21
2 Sp Braga 9 6 3 0 +10 21
3 Sp Lisbon 9 6 1 2 +7 19
4 Rio Ave 10 5 3 2 +4 18
5 Benfica 9 5 2 2 +6 17
6 Moreirense 10 5 1 4 -3 16
7 Santa Clara 9 4 2 3 +3 14
8 Vitoria Setubal 10 4 2 4 +2 14
9 Guimaraes 9 3 3 3 +1 12
10 Belenenses 10 2 6 2 -1 12
11 Portimonense 10 3 2 5 -6 11
12 Aves 10 3 1 6 -4 10
13 Maritimo 10 3 1 6 -7 10
14 Tondela 9 2 3 4 +0 9
15 Feirense 10 2 3 5 -4 9
16 Boavista 10 2 3 5 -6 9
17 Nacional 10 2 3 5 -9 9
18 Chaves 9 2 1 6 -7 7

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Porto Sp Braga
40′
🟨 Fransergio
Half-time 0–0
Tiquinho Soares 🟨
56′
Otavinho 🔁
↦ M. Pereira
63′
H. Herrera 🔁
↦ Y. Brahimi
72′
79′
🔁 João Palhinha
↦ Paulinho
Hernâni 🔁
↦ Óliver Torres
83′
83′
🔁 Wilson Eduardo
↦ Ricardo Horta
1–0 Tiquinho
Otavinho
88′
91′
🔁 Fábio Martins
↦ Marcelo Goiano
Full-time 1–0

Line-ups

Porto

4-1-3-2
1 Casillas G
2 M. Pereira D
13 Alex Telles D
28 Felipe D
3 Éder Militão D
22 Danilo Pereira M
10 Óliver Torres M
8 Y. Brahimi M
29 Tiquinho F
17 Jesús Corona M
11 M. Marega F
Bench (7)
25 Otavinho
16 H. Herrera
7 Hernâni
19 C. Mbemba
21 André Pereira
26 Vaná
27 Sérgio Oliveira

Coach: Sérgio Conceição

Sp Braga

4-4-2
12 Tiago Sá G
47 Ricardo Esgaio M
87 Marcelo Goiano D
5 Sequeira D
14 Pablo D
36 Bruno Vianna D
25 Claudemir M
27 Fransérgio M
21 Ricardo Horta M
99 Dyego Sousa F
20 Paulinho F
Bench (7)
60 João Palhinha
7 Wilson Eduardo
26 Fábio Martins
11 Eduardo
17 João Novais
28 Marafona
34 Raúl Silva

Coach: Abel Ferreira

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
U1,5 ✓
U2,5 ✓
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja
BLS nei ✓

Referee

Artur Soares Dias · 181 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
5,1 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
26,9 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,19 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.