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Primeira Liga

Referee: Joao Carlos Santos Capela

Belenenses

S S T S T

0–1

Full-time

Chaves

S U T T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Belenenses Chaves

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

67%

50%

Points per game

2,0

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 42%

33%

50%

Average goals

2,7

3,3

Scored

1,7

1,8

Conceded

1,0

1,5

Goal diff per game

+0,7

+0,3

This season — Primeira Liga · 11/11 matches

Win Ø 36%

45%

27%

Points per game

1,5

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 45%

45%

Both score Ø 41%

36%

45%

Average goals

2,5

3,0

Scored

1,2

1,3

Conceded

1,4

1,7

Goal diff per game

-0,2

-0,5

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

51% Possession 49%

10 Shots 13

1 Shots on target 2

4 Blocked shots 4

1 Goalkeeper saves 1

10 Corners 4

1 Offside 0

17 Free kicks against 27

4 Yellow cards 2

1 Red cards 0

The table before the match Belenenses 7. · Chaves 14. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	11	10	1	0	+26	31
2	Sp Lisbon	11	8	3	0	+17	27
3	Benfica	11	8	2	1	+15	26
4	Sp Braga	11	7	1	3	+8	22
5	Maritimo	11	7	1	3	+4	22
6	Rio Ave	11	5	2	4	+3	17
7	Belenenses	11	5	1	5	-2	16
8	Guimaraes	11	4	2	5	-7	14
9	Boavista	11	4	1	6	-2	13
10	Tondela	11	3	3	5	-1	12
11	Portimonense	11	3	3	5	-3	12
12	Pacos Ferreira	11	3	3	5	-8	12
13	Feirense	11	3	2	6	-4	11
14	Chaves	11	3	2	6	-5	11
15	Vitoria Setubal	11	2	4	5	-3	10
16	Aves	11	2	3	6	-8	9
17	Moreirense	11	1	4	6	-12	7
18	Estoril	11	2	0	9	-18	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	6	6	0	0	+20	18
2	Maritimo	6	5	1	0	+6	16
3	Benfica	5	5	0	0	+11	15
4	Sp Lisbon	6	4	2	0	+8	14
5	Belenenses	5	4	1	0	+6	13
6	Sp Braga	5	4	0	1	+8	12
7	Pacos Ferreira	5	3	2	0	+3	11
8	Portimonense	5	3	1	1	+4	10
9	Rio Ave	6	3	1	2	+2	10
10	Guimaraes	6	3	1	2	-4	10
11	Vitoria Setubal	6	2	3	1	+3	9
12	Boavista	5	3	0	2	-1	9
13	Chaves	5	2	1	2	+2	7
14	Tondela	6	2	1	3	+0	7
15	Feirense	6	2	1	3	-3	7
16	Aves	6	1	1	4	-7	4
17	Moreirense	5	0	3	2	-4	3
18	Estoril	5	1	0	4	-6	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	5	4	1	0	+9	13
2	Porto	5	4	1	0	+6	13
3	Benfica	6	3	2	1	+4	11
4	Sp Braga	6	3	1	2	+0	10
5	Rio Ave	5	2	1	2	+1	7
6	Maritimo	5	2	0	3	-2	6
7	Aves	5	1	2	2	-1	5
8	Tondela	5	1	2	2	-1	5
9	Boavista	6	1	1	4	-1	4
10	Feirense	5	1	1	3	-1	4
11	Guimaraes	5	1	1	3	-3	4
12	Chaves	6	1	1	4	-7	4
13	Moreirense	6	1	1	4	-8	4
14	Belenenses	6	1	0	5	-8	3
15	Estoril	6	1	0	5	-12	3
16	Portimonense	6	0	2	4	-7	2
17	Vitoria Setubal	5	0	1	4	-6	1
18	Pacos Ferreira	6	0	1	5	-11	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.