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Primeira Liga

Referee: Tiago Martins

Tondela

T T U U T

2–0

Full-time

Moreirense

T T S U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Tondela Moreirense

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 9%

17%

Points per game

0,3

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

33%

67%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

2,3

2,7

Scored

0,7

Conceded

1,7

2,0

Goal diff per game

-1,0

-1,3

This season — Primeira Liga · 4/4 matches

Win Ø 13%

25%

Points per game

0,5

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

25%

75%

Both score Ø 63%

50%

75%

Average goals

2,0

3,0

Scored

0,8

1,0

Conceded

1,3

2,0

Goal diff per game

-0,5

-1,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

34% Possession 66%

9 Shots 12

4 Shots on target 0

1 Blocked shots 3

0 Goalkeeper saves 2

0 Corners 6

6 Offside 0

17 Free kicks against 15

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Tondela 16. · Moreirense 14. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	5	4	0	1	+10	12
2	Benfica	4	3	1	0	+7	10
3	Sp Braga	4	3	1	0	+5	10
4	Sp Lisbon	4	3	1	0	+4	10
5	Rio Ave	5	3	1	1	+3	10
6	Maritimo	5	3	1	1	+1	10
7	Feirense	4	2	1	1	+2	7
8	Guimaraes	4	2	0	2	+0	6
9	Belenenses	5	1	3	1	+0	6
10	Chaves	5	2	0	3	-4	6
11	Santa Clara	5	1	2	2	-1	5
12	Vitoria Setubal	5	1	1	3	-2	4
13	Boavista	5	1	1	3	-3	4
14	Moreirense	4	1	1	2	-4	4
15	Nacional	4	1	0	3	-6	3
16	Tondela	4	0	2	2	-2	2
17	Portimonense	4	0	1	3	-5	1
18	Aves	4	0	1	3	-5	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Maritimo	3	2	1	0	+2	7
2	Porto	3	2	0	1	+7	6
3	Sp Braga	2	2	0	0	+4	6
4	Rio Ave	2	2	0	0	+3	6
5	Sp Lisbon	2	2	0	0	+2	6
6	Feirense	2	1	1	0	+2	4
7	Benfica	2	1	1	0	+1	4
8	Santa Clara	3	1	1	1	+0	4
9	Chaves	2	1	0	1	+1	3
10	Guimaraes	2	1	0	1	+0	3
11	Vitoria Setubal	3	1	0	2	-1	3
12	Belenenses	2	0	1	1	-1	1
13	Aves	2	0	1	1	-1	1
14	Tondela	2	0	1	1	-1	1
15	Portimonense	2	0	1	1	-2	1
16	Moreirense	2	0	1	1	-2	1
17	Boavista	2	0	0	2	-3	0
18	Nacional	2	0	0	2	-5	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	2	2	0	0	+6	6
2	Porto	2	2	0	0	+3	6
3	Belenenses	3	1	2	0	+1	5
4	Sp Lisbon	2	1	1	0	+2	4
5	Sp Braga	2	1	1	0	+1	4
6	Boavista	3	1	1	1	+0	4
7	Rio Ave	3	1	1	1	+0	4
8	Guimaraes	2	1	0	1	+0	3
9	Feirense	2	1	0	1	+0	3
10	Nacional	2	1	0	1	-1	3
11	Maritimo	2	1	0	1	-1	3
12	Moreirense	2	1	0	1	-2	3
13	Chaves	3	1	0	2	-5	3
14	Santa Clara	2	0	1	1	-1	1
15	Tondela	2	0	1	1	-1	1
16	Vitoria Setubal	2	0	1	1	-1	1
17	Portimonense	2	0	0	2	-3	0
18	Aves	2	0	0	2	-4	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.