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Serie A

Referee: Daniele Doveri

Milan

U S T S U

2–2

Full-time

Atalanta

T S U T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Milan Atalanta

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

50%

17%

Points per game

1,8

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

67%

33%

Both score Ø 67%

100%

33%

Average goals

3,8

2,7

Scored

2,5

1,3

Conceded

1,3

Goal diff per game

+1,2

+0,0

This season — Serie A · 3/4 matches

Win Ø 29%

33%

25%

Points per game

1,3

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

67%

50%

Both score Ø 63%

100%

25%

Average goals

3,3

Scored

1,7

1,8

Conceded

1,7

1,5

Goal diff per game

+0,0

+0,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

55% Possession 45%

17 Shots 15

5 Shots on target 6

4 Blocked shots 3

3 Goalkeeper saves 3

4 Corners 3

5 Offside 2

7 Free kicks against 5

2 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Milan 16. · Atalanta 15. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Juventus	4	4	0	0	+5	12
2	Napoli	5	4	0	1	+2	12
3	Fiorentina	5	3	1	1	+8	10
4	Sassuolo	5	3	1	1	+4	10
5	Lazio	5	3	0	2	+2	9
6	Spal	5	3	0	2	+0	9
7	Udinese	5	2	2	1	+2	8
8	Sampdoria	5	2	1	2	+6	7
9	Inter	5	2	1	2	+2	7
10	Parma	5	2	1	2	+1	7
11	Genoa	4	2	0	2	-3	6
12	Roma	5	1	2	2	-2	5
13	Torino	5	1	2	2	-2	5
14	Cagliari	5	1	2	2	-3	5
15	Atalanta	4	1	1	2	+1	4
16	Milan	3	1	1	1	+0	4
17	Empoli	5	1	1	3	-2	4
18	Bologna	5	1	1	3	-3	4
19	Chievo	5	0	2	3	-8	2
20	Frosinone	4	0	1	3	-10	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Fiorentina	3	3	0	0	+9	9
2	Sassuolo	3	3	0	0	+5	9
3	Lazio	3	2	0	1	+3	6
4	Juventus	2	2	0	0	+3	6
5	Spal	2	2	0	0	+3	6
6	Napoli	2	2	0	0	+2	6
7	Genoa	2	2	0	0	+2	6
8	Sampdoria	3	1	1	1	+2	4
9	Parma	3	1	1	1	+1	4
10	Udinese	2	1	1	0	+1	4
11	Atalanta	2	1	0	1	+3	3
12	Milan	1	1	0	0	+1	3
13	Empoli	2	1	0	1	+1	3
14	Torino	3	1	0	2	-2	3
15	Bologna	3	1	0	2	-2	3
16	Roma	2	0	2	0	+0	2
17	Cagliari	2	0	2	0	+0	2
18	Inter	2	0	1	1	-1	1
19	Chievo	3	0	1	2	-3	1
20	Frosinone	2	0	1	1	-5	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Inter	3	2	0	1	+3	6
2	Juventus	2	2	0	0	+2	6
3	Napoli	3	2	0	1	+0	6
4	Udinese	3	1	1	1	+1	4
5	Sampdoria	2	1	0	1	+4	3
6	Parma	2	1	0	1	+0	3
7	Lazio	2	1	0	1	-1	3
8	Roma	3	1	0	2	-2	3
9	Cagliari	3	1	0	2	-3	3
10	Spal	3	1	0	2	-3	3
11	Torino	2	0	2	0	+0	2
12	Sassuolo	2	0	1	1	-1	1
13	Milan	2	0	1	1	-1	1
14	Fiorentina	2	0	1	1	-1	1
15	Bologna	2	0	1	1	-1	1
16	Atalanta	2	0	1	1	-2	1
17	Empoli	3	0	1	2	-3	1
18	Chievo	2	0	1	1	-5	1
19	Genoa	2	0	0	2	-5	0
20	Frosinone	2	0	0	2	-5	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.