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Primeira Liga
Referee: Fabio Jose Costa Verissimo
Benfica
S T S T U
1–0
Full-time
Moreirense
S U S T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Benfica Moreirense
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 42%
50%
33%
Points per game
1,7
1,2
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
50%
50%
Both score Ø 50%
50%
50%
Average goals
2,3
2,8
Scored
1,3
1,2
Conceded
1,0
1,7
Goal diff per game
+0,3
-0,5
This season — Primeira Liga · 33/33 matches
Win Ø 49%
73%
24%
Points per game
2,4
1,0
Over 2.5 Ø 53%
58%
48%
Both score Ø 50%
55%
45%
Average goals
3,1
2,4
Scored
2,4
0,9
Conceded
0,7
1,5
Goal diff per game
+1,7
-0,6
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

66% Possession 34%
10 Shots 6
2 Shots on target 1
2 Blocked shots 4
1 Goalkeeper saves 1
6 Corners 3
0 Offside 1
16 Free kicks against 16
3 Yellow cards 4
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Benfica 2. · Moreirense 14.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Porto 34 28 4 2 +64 88
2 Benfica 33 24 6 3 +57 78
3 Sp Lisbon 33 24 6 3 +40 78
4 Sp Braga 33 24 3 6 +46 75
5 Rio Ave 33 14 6 13 -3 48
6 Chaves 34 13 8 13 -8 47
7 Boavista 34 13 6 15 -9 45
8 Maritimo 33 12 8 13 -14 44
9 Guimaraes 34 13 4 17 -11 43
10 Tondela 33 10 8 15 -8 38
11 Belenenses 34 9 10 15 -13 37
12 Portimonense 33 9 8 16 -10 35
13 Aves 34 9 7 18 -15 34
14 Moreirense 33 8 8 17 -20 32
15 Feirense 33 9 3 21 -16 30
16 Pacos Ferreira 33 7 9 17 -24 30
17 Vitoria Setubal 33 6 11 16 -24 29
18 Estoril 33 8 5 20 -32 29

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Benfica Moreirense
23′
🟨 Neto
Andrija Živković 🟨
37′
Luisão 🟨
41′
Half-time 1–0
1–0 Jonas
52′
63′
🟨 Pierre Sagna
64′
🟨 Ronaldo Peña
A. Samaris 🔁
↦ Pizzi
70′
73′
🟨 Tozé
77′
🔁 O. Drame
↦ R. Peña
R. Jiménez 🔁
↦ Jonas
79′
83′
🔁 Alan Schons
↦ Tozé
Eduardo Salvio 🟨
84′
87′
🔁 Matheus Reis
↦ Arsénio
K. Parks 🔁
↦ E. Salvio
92′
Full-time 1–0

Line-ups

Benfica

4-4-2
30 Bruno Varela G
4 Luisão D
8 Douglas Pereira D
3 Álex Grimaldo D
66 Rúben Dias D
5 L. Fejsa M
21 Pizzi M
18 E. Salvio F
17 A. Živković M
22 F. Cervi F
10 Jonas F
Bench (7)
7 A. Samaris
9 R. Jiménez
55 K. Parks
1 M. Svilar
14 H. Seferović
19 Eliseu
84 Diogo Gonçalves

Coach: Rui Vitória

Moreirense

4-2-3-1
18 Jhonatan G
5 Ruben Lima D
95 P. Sagna D
4 Iago Santos D
23 Rafael Costa M
91 Neto M
10 B. Aouacheria M
90 Alfa Semedo M
77 Arsénio M
20 Tozé M
70 R. Peña F
Bench (7)
93 O. Drame
8 Alan Schons
2 Matheus Reis
22 K. Kouao
27 B. Fofana
50 Felipe
57 Bruno Ramires

Coach: Petit

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
U1,5 ✓
U2,5 ✓
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja
BLS nei ✓

Referee

Fabio Jose Costa Verissimo · 81 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
5,9 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
26,4 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,48 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.