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Primeira Liga

Referee: Carlos Xistra

Tondela

T U T S U

1–2

Full-time

Moreirense

T T T T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Tondela Moreirense

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 9%

17%

Points per game

0,8

0,2

Over 2.5 Ø 25%

33%

17%

Both score Ø 34%

50%

17%

Average goals

1,8

Scored

0,7

0,2

Conceded

1,2

1,7

Goal diff per game

-0,5

-1,5

This season — Primeira Liga · 8/8 matches

Win Ø 13%

13%

Points per game

0,8

0,6

Over 2.5 Ø 25%

25%

Both score Ø 38%

50%

25%

Average goals

1,9

2,0

Scored

0,6

Conceded

1,3

1,4

Goal diff per game

-0,6

-0,8

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

49% Possession 51%

10 Shots 13

2 Shots on target 5

1 Blocked shots 5

3 Goalkeeper saves 1

1 Corners 3

1 Offside 2

24 Free kicks against 20

0 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Tondela 16. · Moreirense 17. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	9	8	1	0	+18	25
2	Porto	8	6	1	1	+14	19
3	Sp Lisbon	9	5	3	1	+7	18
4	Sp Braga	8	5	2	1	+6	17
5	Guimaraes	8	4	2	2	+3	14
6	Chaves	8	3	3	2	+1	12
7	Rio Ave	8	3	2	3	+0	11
8	Maritimo	8	3	1	4	-3	10
9	Feirense	8	3	1	4	-7	10
10	Vitoria Setubal	8	2	3	3	-1	9
11	Boavista	8	2	3	3	-2	9
12	Pacos Ferreira	9	2	3	4	-3	9
13	Belenenses	8	2	3	3	-4	9
14	Nacional	9	2	2	5	-5	8
15	Estoril	8	2	1	5	-6	7
16	Tondela	8	1	3	4	-5	6
17	Moreirense	8	1	2	5	-6	5
18	Arouca	8	1	2	5	-7	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	5	4	1	0	+8	13
2	Porto	4	4	0	0	+9	12
3	Benfica	4	3	1	0	+9	10
4	Sp Braga	4	3	1	0	+5	10
5	Boavista	4	2	1	1	+3	7
6	Rio Ave	4	2	0	2	+0	6
7	Vitoria Setubal	4	2	0	2	+0	6
8	Guimaraes	4	1	2	1	+1	5
9	Chaves	4	1	2	1	+0	5
10	Pacos Ferreira	4	1	2	1	+0	5
11	Belenenses	4	1	2	1	-1	5
12	Arouca	4	1	1	2	+0	4
13	Maritimo	4	1	1	2	-1	4
14	Tondela	4	1	1	2	-2	4
15	Nacional	5	1	1	3	-5	4
16	Feirense	4	1	1	2	-5	4
17	Estoril	4	1	0	3	-4	3
18	Moreirense	4	0	2	2	-2	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	5	5	0	0	+9	15
2	Guimaraes	4	3	0	1	+2	9
3	Porto	4	2	1	1	+5	7
4	Sp Braga	4	2	1	1	+1	7
5	Chaves	4	2	1	1	+1	7
6	Feirense	4	2	0	2	-2	6
7	Maritimo	4	2	0	2	-2	6
8	Rio Ave	4	1	2	1	+0	5
9	Sp Lisbon	4	1	2	1	-1	5
10	Nacional	4	1	1	2	+0	4
11	Estoril	4	1	1	2	-2	4
12	Pacos Ferreira	5	1	1	3	-3	4
13	Belenenses	4	1	1	2	-3	4
14	Vitoria Setubal	4	0	3	1	-1	3
15	Moreirense	4	1	0	3	-4	3
16	Tondela	4	0	2	2	-3	2
17	Boavista	4	0	2	2	-5	2
18	Arouca	4	0	1	3	-7	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.