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Primeira Liga

Referee: Helder Malheiro

Tondela

S U S T T

1–2

Full-time

Moreirense

S T U T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Tondela Moreirense

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 33%

33%

Points per game

1,2

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

2,8

2,2

Scored

1,0

Conceded

1,8

1,2

Goal diff per game

-0,8

-0,2

This season — Primeira Liga · 20/20 matches

Win Ø 23%

30%

15%

Points per game

1,1

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 45%

45%

Both score Ø 48%

50%

45%

Average goals

2,8

2,3

Scored

1,2

0,8

Conceded

1,6

1,5

Goal diff per game

-0,5

-0,8

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

61% Possession 39%

17 Shots 12

6 Shots on target 4

3 Blocked shots 4

2 Goalkeeper saves 5

7 Corners 4

2 Offside 3

13 Free kicks against 18

1 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Tondela 10. · Moreirense 15. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	20	16	4	0	+39	52
2	Benfica	21	15	5	1	+38	50
3	Sp Lisbon	20	15	5	0	+32	50
4	Sp Braga	21	14	1	6	+18	43
5	Rio Ave	21	10	3	8	+2	33
6	Maritimo	20	8	5	7	-4	29
7	Boavista	20	8	3	9	-3	27
8	Chaves	20	7	6	7	-4	27
9	Guimaraes	20	8	2	10	-8	26
10	Tondela	20	6	4	10	-9	22
11	Portimonense	20	5	6	9	-4	21
12	Belenenses	20	5	6	9	-9	21
13	Pacos Ferreira	20	5	6	9	-12	21
14	Feirense	20	6	2	12	-8	20
15	Moreirense	20	3	7	10	-15	16
16	Vitoria Setubal	20	2	9	9	-16	15
17	Estoril	19	4	3	12	-20	15
18	Aves	20	3	5	12	-17	14

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	11	10	1	0	+27	31
2	Sp Lisbon	11	9	2	0	+20	29
3	Benfica	10	9	1	0	+26	28
4	Sp Braga	11	9	0	2	+18	27
5	Maritimo	10	6	3	1	+6	21
6	Rio Ave	10	6	1	3	+6	19
7	Boavista	10	6	0	4	-1	18
8	Portimonense	10	5	2	3	+7	17
9	Belenenses	10	4	4	2	+4	16
10	Pacos Ferreira	10	4	4	2	+2	16
11	Guimaraes	9	5	1	3	-2	16
12	Chaves	10	3	5	2	+3	14
13	Feirense	10	4	1	5	-3	13
14	Vitoria Setubal	10	2	5	3	-3	11
15	Tondela	10	3	2	5	-4	11
16	Estoril	9	3	1	5	-4	10
17	Moreirense	10	1	6	3	-5	9
18	Aves	10	1	2	7	-11	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	11	6	4	1	+12	22
2	Sp Lisbon	9	6	3	0	+12	21
3	Porto	9	6	3	0	+12	21
4	Sp Braga	10	5	1	4	+0	16
5	Rio Ave	11	4	2	5	-4	14
6	Chaves	10	4	1	5	-7	13
7	Tondela	10	3	2	5	-5	11
8	Guimaraes	11	3	1	7	-6	10
9	Boavista	10	2	3	5	-2	9
10	Aves	10	2	3	5	-6	9
11	Maritimo	10	2	2	6	-10	8
12	Feirense	10	2	1	7	-5	7
13	Moreirense	10	2	1	7	-10	7
14	Belenenses	10	1	2	7	-13	5
15	Pacos Ferreira	10	1	2	7	-14	5
16	Estoril	10	1	2	7	-16	5
17	Portimonense	10	0	4	6	-11	4
18	Vitoria Setubal	10	0	4	6	-13	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.